After Newcastle. In search of an edge

Tough victory all but secured the second place for the third season running.

Paris first half

Despite the absence of Newcastle’s main scorer (some fella named Isak, you might have heard of), Eddie Howe has adjusted his team quite efficiently. Wilson (who has 0 Premier League goals this season) was always occupying Kiwior, who, as we know, doesn't like physical duels and struggles against powerful strikers. At the same time the counter threat was centered around Gordon who was getting behind White time after time and was a major path for Newcastle chances. This made me think about yet another problem we have in the squad. It’s mid-May already and Ben White has never regained his former pace and sharpness. Will he ever hit his pre-surgery levels? Is he off the pace because he still doesn’t trust his legs? Or did playing on painkillers with a long-term injury brought some irreversible consequences? We’ll have to see next season, but the improvement hasn’t been gradual, it’s been a consistent worry.

Newcastle’s game plan, predictable as it was (sitting deep with a 5-4-1 and hitting us on the break), worked a treat. The only reason we stayed level at the break was some brilliant saves from David Raya. It was not all peaches and cream for our Spanish goalkeeper though. It’s one thing when Raya gives a dangerous pass to a teammate, who then gets caught in possession under pressure. And it’s absolutely another story when he just rolls out a red carpet to opponents by giving them a low ball into their feet 15 meters away from the box. This happened twice in the game and it’s no more “part of the learning curve”. It’s simply poor decision-making, and it’s crept into his game more and more in the final weeks. We ended the first half with Raya having pass accuracy of only 33%. A rare sight this season underscoring how efficient Newcastle was in blocking our ways to play out from the back.

Our plan for the first half didn’t work, even with Arteta trying a few new tricks. First of all, we varied our corner routine - crosses into the far post, near post and short passes. It doesn't make sense to load into the box all the time and expect the rugby gang to give us a lot of opportunities to shoot on target. They did, however, give one to Partey that was saved rather by luck (despite what the commentators were raving about), than by skill or reaction. There was a big difference between Pope’s flick and how Raya actually reacted and moved his body to reach the ball a couple of times.

We have also seen our front three (Saka, Martinelli, Trossard) flowing around and exchanging positions, all drifting into the central areas at times, leaving Myles and Ben as the only ones providing width. Seemed like the right approach on paper, as Newcastle were clearly set up to shut down the flanks. But it didn’t click in the first half. Why, though?

In my opinion it didn’t work for the same reason we couldn’t manage to trouble PSG. It’s because this Arsenal team is too structured and stuck in its patterns. It’s because this Arsenal team is at times predictable. The team is very often a reflection of a head coach. Mikel Arteta was a disciplined, structured and risk-averse player and we can see that he tries to pass the same mindset to his squad. Too often we move the ball forward at a snail's pace, down the wings, allowing Newcastle (as well as PSG two weeks back) get back into their defensive shape. 

There was a lot of discussion about Martinelli at #9, but he’s only effective when found with quick, vertical passes, giving him space to run into. Yesterday in the first half it was none other than William Saliba who launched Martinelli with a long ball around the 37th minute, when Pope managed to clear it at the very last second. Five minutes later it was Kiwior making a second attempt to find him. Why weren’t our midfielders doing that? I thought the deep lying playmaker Odegaard and even deeper lying playmaker Partey are supposed to be best positioned to spot these opportunities and I can’t remember a single attempt from them. would be best placed to spot those opportunities, but I can’t recall a single attempt from either of them. Partey wasn’t doing it, Odegaard wasn’t doing it, and apparently Zubimendi isn’t planning on doing it either. We won’t be successful against teams that park the bus next season if we don’t have quick, vertical counter-attacks in our locker.

Newcastle have set up with a 5-4-1 defensive shape. They’ve put two people on each wing to minimize the danger from there. They’ve also positioned three massive centre backs to close all possible channels for through balls and clear out the crosses. But they were not invincible, overloading one area always leaves another exposed, and for Newcastle, it was having only two central midfielders. PSG has demonstrated to us how to dominate in the central area against two midfielders if you have a higher quality of players. They deployed three midfielders who are very comfortable with the ball and made sure they always had the extra man to move the ball between the lines and reach the edge of the box where players can already start shooting. 

We were against two very good midfielders in Bruno and Tonali yesterday, but Rice and Merino weren’t exactly pushovers for PSG either. We didn't take advantage of it yesterday, because more often than not, Odegaard was pulled by the invisible magnet to the touch line to get the ball without pressure. And when he did drift inside, he rarely received a ball and continued the attack. I know it’s easier on the sideline, Martin, where nobody tracks you, but it comes at the cost of severely reduced creativity potential. 

Take a look at the pass map in the first half of all our midfielders and attackers. 

You can see that massive empty red zone where we should have been getting the ball but couldn’t – (and we only had one shot from there in the 8th minute). Every successful possession-based team has a player who can receive the ball in that area and turn it into something dangerous. Man City had David Silva, De Bruyne, and Foden at different times. Liverpool had Robbie Firmino carved out for that role. As it stands, we don’t have one. Odegaard isn’t doing it (not this season anyway), and we desperately need to sign someone in the summer who will. It could be that secret weapon that finally takes us to the next level.  

Arteta has set up a great system. The advantage of the defined system and structure is that the team doesn’t drop below a certain standard, despite injuries or other setbacks. Consequently, our results are consistent – we’ll finish second for the third time running and won’t plummet down the table to the 17th place like some of our neighbours. The downside is that a structured team lacks the unpredictability needed to make that final leap to the top. We lacked that cutting edge to get past PSG. We lacked it to get some difficult games over the line.

The other disadvantage is that a structured team is predictable and the structure can be picked apart by the great coach. Many fans noticed our struggle in defending from set pieces this season. Newcastle didn’t just highlight this issue; they gave a clear demonstration of why we’re vulnerable. Our set-piece defensive tactics involve the bigger lads (Gabriel, Saliba, Rice) marking zones, while the smaller players go man-to-man. 

The opposition have eventually figured it out by creating situations where their tallest players get on the ball outside the protected zones. It looked almost comical yesterday when Odegaard was trying to stop Dan Burn from scoring (surprisingly, not even Odegaard was marking their tallest player in the corner above). So when Dan Burn moves into a position where he doesn’t expect any of our “zone watchers” to be and Odegaard’s head is somewhere around his nipple - he has no real problem to shoot on target. The other way to get around our defending is to whip the ball into the space away from the goal (where, again, there are no “zone watchers”) and then find a teammate with the second ball who’s one-on-one against one of our smaller players (see the second Bournemouth goal a couple of weeks back).

Madrid second half

The second half started with a replacement of Saliba to Calafiori. Couldn’t tell if it was down to Saliba’s knock (surprise, surprise, after playing every single match) or his performance levels in the first 45. Either way, Arteta's excuses about rotating the defence don't hold water anymore. . Earlier he explained it with fragility centre-back partnership, but yesterday our second choice partnership delivered a solid performance, arguably even better than the first half. Add to it the game where Saliba and Kiwior held Madrid almost goalless and you will have a pretty undeniable case for rotation.

It was noticed by many that Kiwior had pretty decent performances throughout the patchy period of April/May, better than the team average. And his rare mistakes were followed by brave attempts to save the team with a last moment tackle. Makes you wonder what’s driving him – either he’s making a case for a decent chunk of minutes at left centre-back next season, or he’s putting himself in the shop window for a starting spot at another club. Logic tells me it should be the latter. It would be naive after all the years under Arteta to expect that he won’t sit on the bench when Gabriel’s back. By now he should expect that he will have his chance only when Gabriel’s injured or his form dips massively. And if he has ambitions to play regularly, an exit seems a logical next stop. With the level he’s shown it could easily be the team playing in the Champions League. There’s a third option though - there are strong rumours doing the rounds that Gabriel’s off to Saudi in the summer, and Kiwior’s heard the whispers and is planning to claim our LCB spot, but for now, it seems a long shot.

As in the Real Madrid game, the deadlock was broken by a brilliant shot from Declan Rice. When we talk about the need for players who can score more goals next season, those are the exact types of goals we are talking about. We don’t need players who will tap in the ball at the far post from the chances that system produces. We need the players that can score the goals opponents do not expect us to, we need players who can show their edge, just like Rice did against Newcastle, just like Rice did against Real Madrid. Do you remember your feeling before the first free kick at the Emirates? The nervous first half, chances that Mbappe and Vinicius missed? And do you remember the feeling after the second went in? Calmness and conviction we can really do it. We need more players that can bring us that feeling of calmness, we need players who can turn the mood of the game around by themselves. 

Declan's goal was enabled by quite a decent Odegaard assist, but it was again delivered from his favourite right side and not from the middle.  It was also a quickfire move after the interception, so we finally managed to exploit the gaps and didn’t give the opposition time to regroup.

After the goal spaces begin to open in Newcastle defence, creating more opportunities for us. Eddie Howe freshened up the squad with three new players and migration to 4-3-3 formation. We couldn’t take the opportunities to double the lead, they couldn’t create clear cut chances.

When Havertz came back at the 75th minute, I hoped that it could help us to counterattack more efficiently, but the two best opportunities we had weren’t executed that well. Havertz was too late with the pass the first time and imprecise in the second attempt. You could put it down to match fitness, but it doesn’t distract from the main issue – not executing quick attacks well enough and not killing games off early when the chance arises (how many points have we thrown away from winning positions?). The last time I remember us scoring a proper counter-attack goal was Partey’s thunderbolt after Rice’s assist, and none of our front four were really involved.

My rant wouldn’t be complete without a mention of Nwaneri. While this game was the least suited for him out of the last three since the PSG match, I couldn’t help but wonder again about his game time. While I was happy to see Havertz back, it’s not him that one expects to see when Saka’s number lightens up in red on the sideline. Also I wonder what was Trossard doing after the 60th minute that Nwaneri couldn’t have done? He didn’t defend vigorously, he didn’t drive with the ball, he didn’t create chances.  I could see the value of Martinelli’s legs to provide defensive cover, but what was Trossard bringing to the party?

Anyway, it wasn’t Nwaneri who got a late run-out from the bench. To be fair, when the camera panned to our dugout, Ethan didn’t even look like he thought he’d be involved. I understand that the idea behind getting Tierney and Jorginho on the pitch was to give farewell to two leaving players. However, I don’t think the context of the game has allowed for a farewell atmosphere for those two. A proper send-off happens when the home team is three-nil up, neither team is in a hurry, and a subbed-off player takes a slow walk to the touchline while the whole ground starts to applaud. But when you need to quickly get back into shape and the opposition are desperate for an equaliser, it’s not a real farewell, but rather a regular sub.

But even with Tierney and Jorginho on the pitch, Nwaneri could have had at least a ten-minute spell on the right wing. Newcastle had left acres of space, and he could have exploited it in a rare efficient counterattack. 

While there’s a lot of speculation, his situation could most probably be explained in a most simple way - Arteta doesn’t trust him in competitive situations. Whenever we are in a fight for a result and not two goals up (which was only the case against Ipswich recently), he’s not trusted to be on the pitch. Most probably he didn’t show enough defensive aptitude somewhere around March/April and got that warm seat on the bench permanently assigned. Either that or shagging Arteta’s missus - there’s no third option.  

Would you bet on Ethan starting the Southampton game?In the current circumstances, I honestly wouldn’t. And it doesn’t make a lick of sense.

London post-match

Even though the referee had clearly placed a bet on Newcastle scoring and attempted to prolong the game until it happens, it ended up with “one-nil to the Arsenal” and our home fans were happy to remind everyone. The fans were also treated with a season-ending farewell from the team.

First, our captain had given a speech where he reiterated the same robotic phrases about “learning the lessons before the next season”. It was the exact same speech he gave after the PSG defeat. I don’t know about you but I never get excited when he’s speaking in the interviews, whether post-match or from the training ground. He doesn’t have the passion, the charisma to energize people around, to drive the team. His performances on the pitch haven't been particularly inspiring lately either.

Rice, on the other hand, is not only deciding the games, but is also sincere and passionate in the interviews. He’s not afraid to show his excitement, his frustration, he can admit when he and the team have been below par. At the same time, Declan was saying all the right supportive things when chatting with Myles after he first joined the national team. I’d love to see him wear the captain’s armband. On one hand, I am not sure it’s possible to change him without shattering Odegaard’s confidence. On the other hand, when the manager is talking about non-negotiables and is ruthless with players for their mistakes, shouldn’t this approach be applied to captaincy as well?

Arteta has also delivered the season-ending speech, which was more engaging than the one from our captain. He again focused on the extenuating circumstances that prevented us from winning the titles and gratitude for the achievements of second place and CL semifinals. In my opinion, it was a continuation of his recent quotes about Liverpool points and us being the best team in the competition. I don’t think it was addressed to fans or intended to lift the players mood. I see two potential reasons for such a good PR job. Either he wants to convince the likes of Saliba/Gabriel to extend the contract OR the belief in him in the club starts to fade. It could be connected only to Andrea Berta’s arrival. We have already heard rumours of Berta questioning all our previous transfer decisions - rejecting Sesko and Garcia (GK from Espanyol), extending Partey and Trossard’s deals instead of letting them go. So maybe he’s questioning Arteta’s abilities to get us over the line as well. Maybe we didn’t sign anyone in summer and brought in Berta because there is no trust in the club that Arteta is demanding the right players. Maybe he was the one to prioritize Merino and Calafiori over the striker last summer, which has seriously come back to bite us later in the season. I guess we can only wait and see until the start of the next season.

Newcastle has shown that they are the second strongest opponent in this league. They will be a problem in Champions League next year. On the fourth attempt of the season the tables have finally turned - Newcastle outplayed us by xG (1.1 against 2.3) and lost. On the fourth attempt we have finally shown more edge.