Atleti - on the bus. Power of the crowd

An away draw in the Champions League leaves us as favorites to reach that sweet final.

There was a funny joke going around the internet about the different styles of the two semifinal pairs:

UEFA officially allowed Arsenal and Atleti to skip 180 minutes of suffering and start directly with the penalty shootout.

Turns out, it wasn’t that much of a joke.

The starting line-up was a let-down, given it was another front three of Gyokeres, Martinelli, and Madueke. I’ve said it a dozen times: none of these three have the chemistry to connect our play, and the team just looks incoherent. I was wondering how many goals this trio has actually produced this season, because the only decent outings I can remember were against Brugge and Kairat—teams nowhere near Champions League semi-final level.

I found the numbers: whenever they started together, we won 4, drew 3, and lost 2—a pretty grim return by itself. And one of those four wins was the Carabao semi-final against Chelsea, which we only nicked in the 95th minute thanks to Havertz after the subs were made. I wanted to check their output when they’re actually on the pitch, and then I saw this stat from CBS:

Arteta’s side have an average xG of 1.04 from open play across the whole of this season. But that number drops all the way down to 0.14 when Gyokeres, Madueke and Martinelli are on the pitch together.

So, our creativity is officially nine times worse than the average with these three on the pitch. How is Arteta, a man obsessed with the numbers, ignoring this massive red flag? We had Trossard on the bench, who actually links up the play, even if he isn’t putting up the same goal numbers.

The only real connector we had was Odegaard, so if Simeone had put someone on him to constantly breathe down his neck, he could’ve killed our creativity stone dead. What I didn’t account for, though, is that we’re a completely different beast in Europe, without the suffocating pressure of the title race—when the competition feels like a free hit.

Case in point: around the 10th minute, Madueke waltzed past two defenders and unleashed a strike that whistled just wide. That was completely out of character compared to his April form. And don’t give me the “difficulty of Premier League defenders” excuse. That kind of rapid move and strike won’t be stopped by the likes of Fulham or West Ham; it’s all in Madueke’s head. The misplaced passes, the clumsy touches, the inability to find a teammate’s feet—it’s all down to the pressure our lads just can’t seem to shake.

Viktor Gyokeres is another one who looks like a different player in Europe. First, he muscled into the box, shrugging off defenders to set up Odegaard. Odegaard took a touch too many instead of immediately pulling the trigger, and his shot was blocked. But the persistence paid off; Gyokeres kept going, and we got the penalty just before half-time. A stonewall shout, and Gyokeres converted with the cool, calm confidence he’s shown all season.

The keeper guessed the right way—it’s where Gyokeres usually puts them—but it didn’t matter. The raw power Viktor generates doesn’t give keepers much of a chance. In that sense, he’s starting to remind me of Harry Kane. I’d love to see a shootout between them to see who blinks first. Whatever Gyokeres lacks, you can’t knock his penalty-taking ability, regardless of the occasion.

We were generally the better side in the first half, largely thanks to a fresh tactical tweak. Rice played as a deep-lying midfielder, sitting almost in line with the centre-backs in the build-up, while Zubimendi pushed higher up, surprisingly on the left. I reckon that was Arteta’s way of giving Ben White some extra defensive cover.

Arsenal average positions, Rice and Zubi swapped traditional places - whoscored

We haven’t seen those average positions all season, and it’s brilliant to see the manager trying something new for the big occasion. The double pivot everyone’s been studying has gone stale, so it’s good to see him looking for answers rather than just hoping more of the same will work. Rice suits that deeper role; he’s got a great passing range, while if he’s not the smoothest on the turn under press.

After the break, Atleti came out with more bite—expected, really, with their home crowd behind them. Alvarez had two dangerous strikes (one actually before half-time). Then came that clever corner, where a shot from 18 yards out that was heading wide, somehow pinged off White’s hand.

The ref let it go at first before VAR stepped in. From where I’m sitting, that’s not a penalty. The player’s off balance, arms out for support, and the ball was going nowhere near the goal.

Then again, Arteta said they were warned in the Champions League that any handball would be punished. There’s one caveat, though—if it deflects off another part of the body, and the slow-mo clearly showed it did, UEFA rules say it shouldn’t be a penalty.

But independent of all that, White was a bit sloppy. His positioning didn’t scream “maximum concentration,” and you can’t afford that in a Champions League semi. Worse, it got the crowd absolutely rocking. The noise levels went up, belief surged through the stadium, and the fans practically pushed the ball into our goal.

The 15 minutes after that penalty were the only time Atleti looked the better side—that’s the crowd factor for you. Griezmann missed a couple, and White let Lookman get the better of him again before forcing a save from Raya.

Raya was brilliant, though—one of his calmest, most assured displays. And it was yet another demonstration of a completely different mental attitude - no risky passes out, no rash decisions, just total composure from our number one.

Unfortunately, fatigue started to show. By the 60th minute, Atleti looked the fresher side (which Simeone said he’s bet on), and our lads were starting to tire. Arteta tightened things up with the subs. He brought on Eze for Odegaard to inject some life into the midfield. I don’t think that was a slight on Odegaard; Martin’s had a heavy workload since coming back from injury, so it made sense he couldn’t keep up with Atleti’s sprint levels.

Eze showed, once again, that he’s our only world-class attacking talent. The way he glides past defenders, drives forward under pressure, and keeps his composure on the ball—if he were playing for PSG or Bayern on Tuesday, he’d be definitely on the scoresheet, probably twice. There’s no other way to put it: he is the key to unlocking Fulham and West Ham and our best hope for weathering through a potential Champions League final.

The final push to regain the initiative came with a triple sub: Saka, Jesus, and Trossard. Simeone complained after the game that every sub Arteta made gave him a “ministroke.” Well, Diego, you should’ve known we started with our weaker wingers—you should’ve used your chance in the first half!

It didn’t really threaten Oblak, but the fresh legs helped us keep the ball and kept Atleti at bay. Trossard was still off the pace, Jesus did his usual dribble-past-a-few-but-no-end-product routine. Saka showed glimpses of his old self when it comes to dribbling, but his final ball was miles off—one cross sailed right over the box and nearly out for a throw-in. He’s got time to find his rhythm before the season ends, but he needs to start contributing to this title charge soon.

But it was Eze keeping the creative flow going and it was Eze winning a third penalty in the 83rd minute. And again, the crowd pressure did its job. Scared of being pelted by toilet paper rolls thrown from the stands, the ref quickly ran to the screen and overturned the decision after a VAR check.

It was a soft one, sure, and you could argue the ref could’ve waved it away, but the defender was definitely clumsy enough to warrant a spot-kick. That’s never overturned in the Premier League, as it wasn’t a “clear and obvious error.” It wouldn’t have been overturned if it had been given for the home side, either. The only reason it happened was the sheer noise and pressure from the home support.

1-1 at the final whistle. Arteta didn’t celebrate like he did after the Newcastle win, even though for the overall trophy chances, this was a bigger step forward, in my opinion.

It was not the boring slog the pundits predicted; there were chances at both ends. But in the final twenty minutes, Atleti were pinned back. They couldn’t get a grip on the game, even with final chances of capitalizing on the home advantage (which they used effectively to block our penalty). All things considered, it’s a decent result given the hostile atmosphere.

It was a much better performance, too. It felt like the Arsenal from the start of the season. The way we played, we should be turning them over at our place. Their two big swings only came when the stadium exploded, and Atleti won’t have that luxury next week. The only scenario of potential success for them is if they score first relatively late in the game and manage to hold on the lead in the remaining time, because, sadly, we’re still struggling to convert those chances into goals.

But that’s a problem for next Tuesday. Before that, we’ve got a tricky game against Fulham. The title race is clearly taking a mental toll, and some of the lads look knackered. I wouldn’t demand increasing a goal difference this time around—we’re coming off a heavy game and we need to find something in the tank for the return leg. With a fit Eze, Saka, and Dowman (who’s criminally ignored in favour of a Chelsea reject), we should have enough to get the win.

Arteta needs to rotate at full-back positions. White looks like a liability right now—it’s time to bring back Mosquera. And with a more defensive-minded right-back, we need a left-back who can tuck in and help control the midfield in the face of Ricky. Rice should be at the base again; we’re so much more efficient with him holding. Put Eze and Odegaard ahead of him — the midfield of Rice, Eze and Odegaard has all the needed balance in it. Rice, who’s not tasked with running forward, can cover all the DM zone, specifically when helped by the inverting left-back; Odegaard progresses the ball; and Eze is our most lethal weapon in the number 10 spot. Arteta’s scared of sacrificing defensive solidity, but I reckon we’d be at our sharpest with this setup. At home against a mid-table side, we should be taking the game to them.

Martinelli will hold the width on the left, and Saka should split the minutes with Dowman (though I know Arteta will stick with Madueke). Gyokeres up top—and I don’t want to see Jesus anywhere near the pitch, even for 20 minutes. I’d rather see Martinelli as the alternative number 9.

The last two games showed us enough to suggest we can turn over Fulham, if—and it’s a big if—the players can just get the fear of defensive mistakes out of their heads. If they go out there and just play their natural game, Fulham won’t stand a chance. That’s the big job for Mikel Arteta on Saturday: sorting their heads out. He hasn’t quite managed it in April, but maybe the smell of a historic Champions League final will positively affect his ability to mentally condition the players as well.