Bayern - on the bus. Does it ever get better?
Arsenal slays the old demons and goes on top of the Europe rank stack.
Pre-match worries
The chatter following the Spurs match and leading up to the Bayern clash was dominated by talk of rotation, splitting the fans into two distinct camps. One lot (my lot, I might add) declared that the Bayern game held less significance than the Chelsea tie, due to the Premier League points remaining on the table until the season’s end. The other side insisted that we must treat the best teams in Europe with the utmost seriousness. Added to that, there’s the supposedly massive advantage of playing the second leg at home in the Champions League knockout stages. In the current iteration of the Champions League rules, the higher a team finishes in the group stage, the more rounds they get to play the decisive second leg at home.
But is this ‘second leg at home’ a genuine advantage? “The players and managers like it,” is a common argument, but that’s not a quantifiable one. Funnily enough, a whole academic paper was published by Munich’s LMU university, entitled “Having the Second Leg At Home – Advantage in the UEFA Champions League Knockout Phase?”. Do follow the link if you fancy a read, but the long and short of it is: there is not enough statistical evidence that playing the second leg at home increases the chance of going to the next round. What they do claim, though, is that the higher a team’s UEFA ranking (i.e., the stronger the team), the better their chances of progressing in the knockouts. And since the stronger sides are more likely to top their groups, the fans and viewers are more used to seeing them play the second leg at home and win. So, frankly, if you’re a decent team, you shouldn’t be bothered about where you play first.
Arteta rolled out almost the identical starting XI that took on Spurs, with just two changes: Myles instead of Calafiori (which was expected, as Arteta is being dead serious about Ricky’s fitness this season) and Mosquera for Hincapie (most likely down to his physicality to tussle with Harry Kane). The big question hanging in the air was this: if a strong line-up was the plan for Bayern, why on earth did Arteta leave Timber, Saka, and both our centre midfielders on for the full ninety against Tottenham? We were 3-1 up with twenty minutes to go, then 4-1 up with fourteen minutes left, but Arteta didn’t think it was a good moment for a couple of fresh faces on the pitch?
Tense first half
Neuer, that annoying bloke, bantering us from the years when Bayern would routinely give us a good beating, looked like a 90s p*rn actor. To be clear, I haven’t seen p*rn from the 90s, but that’s exactly how I picture those blokes, so I shall refer to him as such throughout this piece. Harry Kane wasn’t my main concern from the beginning. The man is 32 years old, practically halfway to collecting his pension, so he simply doesn’t have it in him to cause major headaches for a leading Premier League defence. Who I was more bothered about were those fast, clever, creative attackers, led by a familiar face in Michael Olise.
Arsenal truly came out with a totally different game plan right from the first whistle. We weren’t trying to keep possession; instead, we were going for vertical attacks, looking to slice open their backline as quickly as possible. And we weren’t half bad either—Saliba really ought to have put one on target after one of those signature Rice crosses.
Eze had a crack inside their penalty area. After about 20 minutes, we’d only completed a quarter of the passes Bayern had, yet we’d already carved out genuine chances, while they had none. In one instance, Zubimendi battled like a Trojan to win a vital corner and really got the crowd going. I properly rate Martin, not just for his footballing abilities, but because he steps up in the big matches; he doesn’t shy away from getting really up the pitch (despite playing quite deep usually), he takes risks, and he wants the responsibility. I have a feeling that our central midfield pair plays differently, and against the stronger sides, Zubimendi takes up more advanced positions than Rice. It makes sense because, against the likes of Bayern, we need Rice’s engine to track back on the counter and stamp out danger as quickly as possible, whereas against a team sitting deep, we need the better passer, who can distribute the ball efficiently from the base of our build-up. In reality, they occupied roughly similar areas on Wednesday, as Rice ended up doing a ton of defensive work on the left wing (see his touch map below).
The set piece was curled right into Kane’s face, who spent the pre-match discourse complaining about our unexplainable ability to score from set pieces. The “p*rn actor” jumped to grab an invisible object around the box (not exactly surprising), while Timber calmly nodded the ball home, making the stands erupted in pure delight!
At that point, our success started to feel absolutely nailed on, before suddenly Bayern pulled out a moment of absolute class. Kimmich, another one of those “thorns in our side,” found Gnabry with a pin-point 40-yard cross. And the ex-Gunner touched the ball first-time in the air as it dropped, producing a perfect assist for the young German. The delivery landed precisely where Mosquera couldn’t possibly reach it, yet still out of Raya’s grasp, and the score was equal. There have been a few shouts for Lewis-Skelly and Mosquera to increase their level, but I’m not joining that chorus. Myles has certainly dipped a bit compared to last season, but that’s mainly because the opposition has figured out his key moves, and he now needs to develop his game further to become a more complete player, which might take a year or even two. It’s also bloody tough to maintain the standard of one of the best players in the team when you’re just 18 and have only just burst onto the biggest stage.
But regarding the goal, I wouldn’t lay the blame solely at their door. Firstly, Mosquera and MLS were playing on the left side in that partnership for the very first time. Secondly, it’s incredibly difficult to defend against such a wonderfully accurate ball played in behind you. Thirdly, it’s pretty much the only way to beat someone like Mosquera, a true duel winner, who was trained not for those low-probability pre-goal sprints, but for the other strengths I’ll cover later.
Nevertheless, that goal once again highlighted why you can’t simply rely on your defence and a 1-0 lead against top sides in the latter stages of the Champions League. There is simply too much individual quality on the pitch, so our team must be able to manufacture chances themselves. 18 months ago, we got stuffed by Bayern in Munich because we didn’t know how to break them down; hopefully, things will be different this time. During a brief shaky spell, they could have grabbed a second, and brought back all those awful old memories, but we were lucky that it was only their inexperienced right-back bombing into our box.
Monster second half
After the interval, Declan Rice really went into Berserk mode, constantly hounding the opposition and picking off passes deep in their half. Bayern were simply not up to speed for a Premier League intensity match—the standard we face every second Saturday. One of these moments saw Saka latch onto a superb opportunity right in the box. The shot was decent, but I think Saka had more time to tuck it in the bottom corner, since it would take a few seconds for the “German actor” to get into his lying position.
In a move after this, Arteta showed he’s definitely matured since last season. Taking off Saka in a huge game at 1-1? Honestly, I hadn’t seen that coming. It’s the acceptance that resting a player, that is most guaranteed to produce chances independent of the opponent, is important. And it paid off a treat!
Martinelli and Calafiori came in for him and MLS. Rice nicked the ball again, Eze kept the play ticking over with his customary coolness, Calafiori delivered a peach of a cross, and Madueke bagged his first-ever Arsenal goal. You could clearly see what it meant to him, especially in a tough fixture like that. There was a lot of visible tension boiling up, which he released with that shout. Good to see that, as otherwise, it would all spill over into brutal tackles and fights leading to nothing but a sending-off.
The interesting thing with Madueke is he looked far better when he switched the right side. Everything just happens naturally for him there; he plays off instinct and becomes a real danger. He might learn to hone his instincts on the left eventually, but for now, the difference in performance is clear as day.
Gabi Martinelli also showed why he’s been kept at Arsenal all these years, even through last summer. Stealing the ball right on the edge of our own area, then sprinting three-quarters of the pitch past the “p*rn actor” sliding on the wet surface (old habits die hard) and scoring in the same brilliant style as against Villa in 23/24. The assist was an absolute sitter for Eze—give him space, and he just knows the perfect power to ping the ball so it lands right in his mate’s run.
It’s quite interesting that almost every Arsenal supporter, including myself, wanted an upgrade option on our left wing and was convinced either Martinelli or Trossard would be off in the summer. They both stayed, much to my shock, alongside Eze, and now all three are among our top scorers, with five and six goals apiece.
And they aren’t just scoring, they’re netting goals in massive matches! Solving the game against Athletic, that vital equaliser against Man City, that absolute screamer against Sunderland, and then the opening goal against Spurs, and the one today. The lads are truly making an impact, and I’m really happy about it.
Bayern were truly rattled. They hadn’t a clue what to do. Arteta finally dismissed Timber, bringing on White and, crucially, getting Odegaard back in the mix. It’s very important to see the skipper get a proper run out before the Chelsea clash, especially since we lost Trossard in the game.
They did try to stop us in the opening 55 minutes. They were often swarming Saka with three players at a time, leaving him with nowhere to go. Saka has received some criticism for his performance in that game, but he’s not prime Messi, is he, to just dribble his way out of every sticky situation? We still adore him, and he can still be a world-class player. It probably helps that Eze tends to drift centrally, so when Saka does manage to break free of that defensive cage, he finds partners in a right dangerous spot. Odegaard, in this scenario, usually drifts over to the right wing. He helps us keep the ball nicely, but the central zone ends up looking a bit sparse, and we can’t threaten the opposition right away.
And then there was only one left.
We are well on our way to bagging 21 points, which should comfortably secure us one of the top-two positions, ensuring the best route forward. It’s already clear to see that Bayern, PSG, and Real Madrid will also grab TOP-8 spots, meaning there’ll be a proper scrap for the remaining four, including our future opponents, Inter Milan.
Why are we so strong?
But right now, we’re sitting pretty, clear first in every competition we’re involved in. Does it honestly get any better than this? Only when you lift the trophies and it would be really unfair if this season doesn’t deliver a major cup; someone must have signed a deal with the devil if it doesn’t. So, what is it exactly that’s giving us this immense strength?
This very interesting analysis was put up on YouTube. The gist of it is that the previous era of attacking football evolution, mostly under Pep Guardiola, saw teams attacking in a 3-2-5 shape (Arteta has done this too) with two players floating between the lines and creating chances, because those areas aren’t clearly assigned to anyone, so only precise coordination can halt the attack.
The latest counter-wave in defensive football is to employ man-to-man pressing, regardless of the position the duel is happening. Bayern and Arsenal are the best European team in applying these principles, which is why we saw Saliba and Mosquera following Harry Kane deep into their own half, probably up to his changing room locker! Upamecano and Tah were doing the same thing for Bayern, and in this respect, Merino, dropping into the defensive midfield slot, is a far superior option than Gyokeres.
Credit to Arteta for spotting this trend early, which now completely explains our recruitment strategy over the last years. We concentrated on bringing in duel-winners because to make pressing efficient, you need players who can win their one-on-one battles and immediately get the ball back for the team. That’s why all the banter about Arteta playing with four centre-backs is now coming back to bite those who were making the jokes. We ARE playing with four great centre-backs, because with this style of defence, any of them might end up covering that central defensive zone, and they shouldn’t look completely lost there. White, Timber, Hincapie, and Calafiori have all played as central defenders, and it’s no surprise now why we shelled out big bucks for their services. Even Zubimendi and Rice wouldn’t look out of place if they needed to drop into defence. These “flexible” players, that Arteta loves, like Merino, Havertz, or Trossard, are also highly valued because they can track an opponent to any position and still be comfortable launching the attack from wherever they end up.
I am fairly certain that since these two coaches spent such a long time with Pep, the counter-measure ideas must have been discussed with him, too. In fact, just two seasons ago, City’s defensive line-up was Gvardiol, Ake, Dias, Stones, Walker - all sticking to the very same principle.
Stamford Bridge still on the map
Arteta took a big risk by fielding the full-strength starting XI against Bayern. It was a massive gamble, as losing with your best side leaves you with the worst of both worlds: a tired squad and a dip in confidence. Arteta made this risky bet and won it, but we must remember that those players put in a shift which will need to be repaid at some point. You can’t just keep rolling out the same names and expect everything to be tip-top.
Last season, our title charge went to cracks around December/January. In just over a month, we lost Saka, Jesus, Saliba and Nwaneri for a bit, Martinelli and, later, Havertz. Arteta kept sticking with his strongest line-ups; we kept dropping points, and players injuries kept piling up. This year, the only thing that can stop us from lifting the trophy is Arteta himself, and no one else.
Arteta has done a bit of rotation this season, fair enough. But there are still three players he starts every single time: Zubimendi, Rice, and Timber. Funnily enough, three of our top four for minutes played are the lads I just mentioned, and the fourth is already out injured for up to two months.
The only one I can give a pass to for now is Rice. His back-up, Merino, is tied up waiting for one of our three genuine number nines to get back in the mix. However, Norgaard and White should be firmly on Arteta’s radar for December. I know those two positions have the biggest gap between the starter and the back-up – Timber and Zubimendi are just on another level right now, and I do worry a bit about how we’d cope without them. But that should actually be more of a reason to manage their fitness with real care. If we run Timber or Zubi into the ground this month, they might not be there when it really matters, and that would be a proper mess, caused by none other than Arteta.
I reckon the Chelsea game won’t see much rotation, but if White and Norgaard don’t get a start against Brentford, it suggests Arteta hasn’t quite grasped the issue and is still playing with fire. Come on now—Ben White and Norgaard (who used to play for Brentford, mind you) are certainly up to the task at that level.
Chelsea were the only other English side to bag a win in the Champions League, and it was a cracking 3-0 against Barcelona, no less. So, the upcoming match is honestly a showdown between two of the best teams around right now, with the second-best playing at home. It doesn’t get much more thrilling than that, does it?
Chelsea have a superb midfield. Caicedo is one of those annoying players who can just stick to an opponent like glue. And Enzo is finally performing at the level they forked out over £100 million for, netting a goal every other game. After two gruelling matches, we won’t be bossing the midfield (that whole Rice vs. Caicedo nonsense the media is trying to drum up won’t happen). But what we can do is hit their other weak spots in defence. Out of Chelsea’s massive collection of twenty young, promising wingers, none of them are exactly known for their defensive shifts. So, regular bombing runs from our full-backs could actually be the trick to unlock their backline—the same sort of thing Timber pulled off against Spurs, but amplified with Calafiori charging down the other flank, while Rice and Zubi sit deep, ready to cover if there’s a scare.
The starting line-up will likely mirror the one against Spurs, apart from the obvious injured Trossard. Thankfully, we’ve had three players come back into the fold: Madueke, Martinelli, and Odegaard. The skipper only played a quarter-of-an-hour on Wednesday, so it’d be wishful thinking to expect him to manage more than an hour at Stamford. That means Eze should probably start at number 10, with Martin coming on in the second half.
Madueke has had the most minutes lately, but sticking him out on the left wing just doesn’t feel right to me. First off, his best performances really come on the right. But secondly, I don’t think it helps that he came over from Chelsea. There’s a noticeable difference between playing against someone three times a year and facing them in training every other day. Chelsea’s defenders will have picked up on most of his moves over the last two seasons and can better second-guess his tricks. So, I’d much rather see him coming off the bench against the tired legs.
I’d hand Martinelli the start on the left. With Merino sitting deeper from his position, we need someone who is willing to sprint into the channels behind their dragged-out centre-backs, and Gabi is the perfect man for that job. Then, in the second half, we can bring on Odegaard and Madueke, depending on how things are panning out. Eze can always switch over to the left if needs be.
The team needs to make one last push of the week to deliver the message “We are here to rule!”.