Before Brentford. Hard. Bloody. Work
I have been out on a nice vacation for a couple of weeks, but I am back for the first game of the New Year.
Our spell of relatively easy fixtures has ended and we start a year with two tough away games: Brentford and Brighton. And if Brighton’s form has not been really very impressive, Brentford shows just unbelievable home form this season.
By the number of points they are first in the home premier league table and last in the away one.
This is a very uncommon case. My suspicion is that they got tired of the same tactics, same faces and fight for the same places. However, in front of the energizing home crowd, they rise up their level back to the best Brentford, who knows how to take scalps from the best in the country.
Hence, the game would require 90 minutes of hard bloody work. 90 minutes of concentration, 90 minutes of tracking their runs, 90 minutes of attempts to unlock their defense. It would also require our attackers to step up in Bukayo’s absence (which did not happen much against Ipswich). First and foremost, I expect it from our captain. Saka has carried us in Martin’s absence and it’s time for a reverse pirouette.
It’s not really clear who’s our best line up for today. The defence line that played against Ipswich was good, but with regards to the attack, we don’t really have a strong case for anyone, except Odegaard. Unfortunately, Nwaneri was not given minutes against Ipswich, despite the setup being the ideal case for his dribbling abilities. I am afraid that Brentford would require the most cohesive team possible and it’s not a great case for a youngster. Unless he plays on the right wing, where he won’t need to connect the rest of the team.
However, I think we would see the same team as against Ipswich, except potentially Merino instead of Jesus.
Melting title chances
Liverpool continues their glorious run. They dismantled West Ham and they will definitely dismantle Man United on Sunday. After Amorim couldn’t do anything against Newcastle at home, there were no hopes for his boys at Anfield.
If I look realistically, I fail to see how we will catch up with Liverpool this year. I know that the title race isn’t over in January, but the problem is that Liverpool is a stronger team now and I would bet on it collecting more points than us in the span of next two months. Adding that up to the already existing 9 point deficit, makes our chances for the title very slim. It seems more likely that we have a shot at a Champions League, where there would be 5-6 tough games, possibly with a fit Bukayo.
Liverpool is at the top, because Arne Slot has set up their system around the best qualities of their players. In the defensive shape Salah is located very high up and mostly excused from the defensive responsibilities. Moreover, he is always ready to be launched in an instant counterattack, where he just blossoms. The rest of the attackers – Diaz, Darwin, Jota – are also pretty comfortable in these counterattacking lightning-fast punches, which makes Liverpool so threatening. Salah’s numbers, while being very impressive, are actually not showing any outstanding conversion rate. He has scored 17 goals out of 15 xG, which means that the Liverpool system is set up for him to get a lot of chances in the first place.
Arteta, on the other hand, bends the players to his system. Saka, our best player to convert a chance into a goal by far, is burdened with a lot of defensive work. Consequently, he has only 5 goals out of 5 xG this season. If Arteta would set him up, we might have had more success from counterattacks.
Apart from that, Arteta hasn’t really signed a player that can spark a goal out of nowhere in all 5 years. In our front line he signed a hard-worker Havertz, duel-winner Merino, as well as Jesus and Odegaard who both do a lot of legwork during pressing. He has also signed a whole bunch of fullbacks and goalkeepers at the same time. But the team can’t have only one strong quality. There should be players who can pull the magic when needed, who can convert the 0-0 draw with Everton or a 1-1 draw with Fulham into a win. Given that we have scored 2 goals in the last three games, we are in desperate need of such a player.
Liverpool has Salah, Jota (when fit), Trent when in the mood. We have only Saka, who’s out for a third of the season. I don’t know if there’s an opportunity to sign such a player in just opened window. But if we look at the Premier League, Cunha from Wolves is the one to look at. 10 goals from 4.5 xG is the first sign of such a player. However, with the season he’s having, the price would be north of 70 million and I don’t think that’s something we will spend.
The most worrying part is that the profile of the striker we looked at in the summer is Sesko, who’s by no means a magic player. And with the missing sporting director, there’s definitely no one in the club to tell a firm “NO” to Arteta’s approach.
Alright, let’s enjoy the game today and root for the win!
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