Before Chelsea. Can we end the league run early?

We are facing Chelsea at the Emirates this Sunday, and this is the perfect opportunity to solve the top-four question as early as March.

If we win, we are at least nine points ahead of everyone else, except Forest. Realistically, we are not going to drop below third. This would not only solve our Champions League qualification for next season but also allow us to have a  rotation before playing Real Madrid.

The question of freshness has always been a problem under Mikel Arteta, mainly because he doesn’t rotate the squad well and doesn’t trust enough players. As a manager, he has to accept that some players are not going to be the best at their position, but their participation in games comes with the benefit of preserving a functioning squad for longer. So far, Arteta puts out the best available in 95% of the games and believes it should be the correct way to manage top players. This season has clearly proven him wrong; we had injuries at each individual position that didn’t have two options of comparable quality.

Our winning run last season came at a time when we were out of the cups and had one game per week. And the only game we lost in that run(that ultimately cost us the title? The home game before the CL quarterfinal. This time, since we are out of the title race, we need to be able to afford to take point losses.

If we lose, we are straight back into the TOP-four race for at least five game weeks. If we draw, we have a six-point margin but lose some flexibility for rotation. So the result tomorrow has a very strategic value. This is also probably the last game we play against a TOP-four rival (Newcastle in the 37th game week might not have any impact).

How is Chelsea’s season?

The fact that we were able to almost fully rotate on Wednesday is a crucial factor before the game. Chelsea, with their monstrous size of a squad have almost always played a second squad in the Conference League. They are also two levels above everyone else in that tournament just by sheer player quality.

But tomorrow we come fresh, while they played everyone, except Cucurella and Cole Palmer, who’s by the way finally not in a good shape. 

Chelsea have come back into the TOP-4 recently. However, they did it because they played two of the worst teams in the league at home. Naturally they took six points. However, if you’d like to know when they last got an away win, you have to search all the way back to 8th of December when they won 4-3 against Spurs (who didn’t?).

That’s why I feel quite positive about our chances. One other detail is that they also play without their #9 Jackson, who has been quite aggressive in our previous matches. Pedro Neto, who’s now an apparent replacement, will not have as much space in that position, as he gets on the wing.

Who is Arteta betting on?

Given the rotation that we’ve seen against PSV, our starting lineup for Chelsea almost fully picks itself. The only two open questions are the three upfront and the left-back.

As for our forwards — again judging by the PSV game, we will most likely see Trossard, Martinelli, and Nwaneri. However, Merino could start as well if Martinelli is not ready for a full 90 minutes. If Martinelli starts, I’d really like to see him in the center. I think he’s the best option we have to score from the box. His shooting instincts are one of the best, and if he gets in form, he could score in a couple of games in a row.

But it looks like Arteta values players who can connect the play of the entire front line. Havertz is definitely the best at this, while Merino and Trossard also have these qualities developed in their game to some extent, so I expect one of those two to start in the middle. The problem with Trossard is that it’s very hard for him to win physical duels against center-backs. This forces him to drop deep, and consequently, the opponent's center-backs have more freedom to block our wings and late runs of our midfielders.

As for the left-back — we have finally seen all five of our nominal options on the pitch simultaneously. That’s something that should have been happening starting from January. If we are short in some areas, we need to get all the help we can get from the overloaded positions. And we’ve certainly seen that both Zinchenko and MLS can be a decent rotation option in midfield to offer something different for the last 15 minutes when we chase a result.

Given that Myles has played for 90 minutes, I am pretty sure Calafiori will start tomorrow, and that’s basically my only worry. He’s constantly been outpaced by Premier League wingers, and Chelsea definitely has a couple in the squad with a similar uncomfortable profile. Let’s hope he’s not going to cost us tomorrow, but I would be more calm seeing Zinny there, who, I think, knows his speed limitations and tries to mitigate them preventively.

While I really like to watch Calafiori play, I really struggle to see what’s his best position in our system. I don’t think he’s fast enough to play on the wing and Lewis-Skelly is much better defensively. I also don’t think he’s the best centre back, since one of his strengths was ability to move bravely with the ball through the lines. I think he might be the best suited for our ever incomplete left eight role - he has a good control of the box, he does late runs into the box, he can shoot pretty well, his defensive qualities are good for a box-to-box and he’d have another layer of defence behind him. 

I would really be interested in seeing a midfield of Rice-Calafiori-Odegaard one time. But I don’t think it’ll happen until next season. Or maybe in the last gameweek when we have nothing to play for? Dreams, dreams, dreams…

Let’s cheer for a confident win tomorrow! 

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