Before Chelsea. Three wishes

The second London derby in a row with solid hopes for a second win.

Initially I wanted to focus this post mainly on our clash with Chelsea, just touching on the Champions League, but the draw has properly thrown my plans out. I came into Friday thinking that Atalanta and Bayer aren’t really the massive forces we should be scared of. That Atalanta isn’t the same animal it was under Gasperini and they’ve lost that defensive solidity. That Bayer, after losing Wirtz, Frimpong, and Boniface, lack that attacking magic—and keeping Grimaldo quiet means shutting down half their creative engine.

But the whole knockout bracket has absolutely blown my mind.

I believe there are only four teams in the Champions League that can give us a proper tough challenge—only four ties where we wouldn’t be the clear favourites:

• PSG, who knocked us out last season, so Luis Enrique clearly has a blueprint to tame Arsenal.

• Bayern Munich, who did the business against us two seasons ago; they’re the highest scoring team in Europe, full of confidence and attacking power.

• Liverpool, who managed to keep us goalless in both Premier League fixtures.

• And Man City, who don’t need any further introduction.

Now all four are in the other half of the bracket, meaning we could theoretically only face one of them if they come out on top there. If there’s a tiny downside, it’s that the other finalist would have come through such a brutal path they wouldn’t be even a bit afraid of us in the final. But that’s a way off yet, and a good type of headache to have.

Out of the all top-seeded pairs, we’ve got the easier shout in my opinion. Obviously Sporting is better to face than City, and Spurs... well, defenitely better than Liverpool. But also Barcelona is a better pairing for Arsenal than Chelsea. We’ve played Chelsea so many times and they have plenty of experience to learn how to stop us.

But Barcelona, despite all their attacking flair and individual quality, have a massive defensive weakness. They play a high line and I bet they won’t bother with an organised deep block. That is exactly the setup this Arsenal team is comfy with. We’re at our best when we’re actually left to defend and can hurt teams on the transition.

And even if we look at the other potential opponents in our half of the draw, there isn’t much to be seriously worried about:

• Newcastle are nowhere near last year’s level defensively and haven’t found a proper replacement for Isak.

• Atleti aren’t the same side they were a few years back either. They shipped three away at Brugge and we put four past them in October. Griezmann is getting older by day and Alvarez has been quite weak in this second half of the season.

• Bodo and Sporting can win by simply being a more organised outfit, but we’re an organised unit too, just with far superior individual quality.

• Spurs :)

Aside from Newcastle, the rest of this half doesn’t have the experience of stopping Arsenal and we all know how players like Gyokeres or Martinelli shine when they aren’t being suffocated for space.

I don’t know how it’s happened, but we’ve been unbelievably lucky. We just need to make it count now. People say an easy draw brings more pressure, but after five dry seasons and a lost semi-final last year, the pressure to reach the final was always there. After a bit of a wobbly winter in the league, this set of opponents will boost the belief that we can actually make it to Budapest.

Back to Chelsea

For the first time in weeks, maybe even months, we’re heading into a Premier League game with a full week of rest. The last time that happened was …. back on the 31st of August, when we lost to Liverpool at Anfield. Since then, excluding international breaks, our biggest gap between games was five days. Until the end of March, we’re fully booked again.

Which means we have a rare chance to be fresh, which can only be good news. Chelsea have lost some steam under Rosenior after a couple of draws. He’s an interesting coach, but I’ve always thought that to handle that collection of high egos and spoiled individuals at the Bridge, you need a manager with indisputable authority. A 40-year-old hipster, however well he talks, isn’t going to have that. Now he’s being mocked for having a lone pint in the pub after the Burnley draw. It’s not embarrassing in itself, but the media (social and other hype eaters) will jump on anything to troll him because he just doesn’t have the weight to handle Chelsea.

The tough bit about this Chelsea fixture is that despite losing to us twice in the Carabao Cup, they’ll have a different mindset this time. In the semi-final, Rosenior couldn’t really play for a draw. At home he couldn’t park the bus in front of his own crowd. And away after a home draw, they desperately needed a goal. Now, in the league, they’re facing the league leaders away, so a draw is a decent result for them. They can easily set up a low block and dare Arsenal to break them down.

Generally, I thought his Carabao Cup performance was quite convincing. Rosenior managed to stay in the tie until the death. Until the 90th minute, only a single goal kept them from the penalty lottery. And let’s be honest, the game at the Emirates was tight and a draw would’ve been a fair outcome.

It’s also worth noting Chelsea are in a proper dogfight for a Champions League spot with Liverpool, United, and Villa.

One of those four is going to miss out, and right now Villa look the most likely to drop.

That said, if Chelsea don’t win on Sunday, they’ll likely drop to that outsider sixth spot. Given that in the last 11 gameweeks they still have to play Villa, City, Liverpool, United, and Newcastle—plus now two times PSG in Europe—they really can’t afford to mess about, especially after drawing at home to the team in 19th.

That’s why I don’t think this will be an easy game. At the same time, Arsenal play better when the opponent is a “big name”—it energizes the crowd and the players more noticeably than a regular fixture. And if that “big name” is also combined with a questionable form - it’s the best opportunity for Arsenal to leave a big mark (How are you doing there, Spurs?). Honestly, I’m more worried about Everton coming here in two weeks, as they won’t be shy about putting up one of those annoying, deep blocks.

If I had three wishes from a genie, then aside from that absolute gift of a Champions League draw and properly smashing City at the Etihad, I’d be desperate for Arteta to keep doing the business against the rest of the league exactly how we did against Spurs. Less of that “horseshoe” sideways football and more vertical, penetrative play, with Eze linking everyone and Gyokeres being released early. Based on recent form, we shouldn’t be seeing Odegaard start; strictly speaking he should not be sent into a position of proving his worth coming off the bench.

Having Havertz on the bench should be a boost too. Even if he doesn’t play or only gets a 10-minute cameo, just having him around as an option is a confidence lift. Knowing you have a Plan B in mind takes the pressure off Plan A and makes it easier to deliver.

Kai has become so vital in our games against Chelsea. In just 203 minutes against them in our shirt, he’s bagged three goals and didn’t shy away from a proper celebration, despite winning the biggest trophy of his career in a Chelsea shirt. It suggests he was in a proper toxic atmosphere and was already excited to just be out of it.

Last week we showed who runs North London, now it’s time to confirm our dominance across the whole capital!