Before Everton. Taking a good look
Arsenal is set to play one of the least successful fixture of Arteta's reign.
Last week, many of the fans, myself included, spent a fair bit of time reflecting on the Wolves game in the context of our title challenge. I’ve seen plenty of differing opinions flying about, but I’m sticking to my guns from my post-match thoughts. I didn’t see a lack of desire, I didn’t see a lack of fitness, and I certainly didn’t see a group of players who thought they’d already won the league.
We were in control of the ball for the entire first half, bar that one moment where Zubimendi failed to play it safe on the edge of the box, essentially handing White’s hamstring straight to the medical team. Saka tried to find the opening from the right side time and time again, only for that final action to go missing.
I still maintain that our primary issues were:
Being an incredibly one-sided team, which makes life too easy for any side sitting in a deep block.
Dropping into a defensive shell for the final 15 minutes while only holding the narrowest of leads at home.
If we take another look at those position and heat maps from The Athletic, it tells a story.
The left-hand side is being completely ignored—we essentially played with two right-backs, one centre-half, and one left-back. The “left 10” zone that is critical for unlocking a stubborn defence, isn’t getting any joy at all. You can also see that Wolves themselves were heavily skewed to their right. If I remember Guardiola’s philosophy correctly, it was about saturating one wing to progress the ball before a quick switch to the other side, where your best dribbler is waiting to be left one-on-one against a defender—a battle he’ll win more often than not.
I’m not sure if Arteta views Martinelli as our most dangerous dribbler; I’d certainly put Saka or even Madueke ahead of Gabi. But even if that’s the case, you can see from the map that Martinelli is located closer to a left wing-back position.
The worrying part is that, unlike a lack of concentration or effort (which are rare for this Arsenal side and can be easily corrected), these two issues are systematic. There’s no “quick fix” here. One is down to how the team is set up, and the other is baked into our habits.
There are plenty of voices putting this performance down to our injury list. But let’s hold on a minute. Most of our injuries are in the back line, while in the final third, Havertz is the only major absentee. Yet, in his post-match interview, Arteta was fuming about “defensive habits” rather than the lack of goals.
Since the Bayern game, Arsenal have managed to score 1 against Chelsea, 2 against Brentford (one in injury time), 1 against Villa, and 2 against Wolves (another really late one). In reality, we’re averaging a goal a game before the crunch time kicks in. In that same four-match period, City have put away 3, 5, 3, and 3. That’s a stark contrast.
Main rivals from the opposite pole
Man City, who look set to be our primary headache this season, are currently a completely different beast to us. They operate like a chill Brazilian on the beach—inviting pressure, keeping things relatively passive in the middle third, and allowing chances. But the second they nick the ball, they let their attacking heavyweights off the leash. They almost lure opponents into their own half just to ensure there’s plenty of grass for Haaland and Co to charge into. They don’t seem to mind conceding, simply because they back themselves to outscore anyone.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are more like a German bureaucrat—uptight, incredibly disciplined, and obsessed with total control. We put in a massive shift off the ball, trying to kill off attacks before they even get going. We press, we win our duels, and we want to hog the ball, terrified of taking a risk and giving it away.
As a result, City’s forward line looks full of belief and totally at ease. When a chance falls their way, they tuck it away with surgical precision, constantly finding the top or bottom corners. Our attack, however, looks anything but relaxed. Sometimes I get the feeling our players are overthinking their positioning and the statistical probability of positions rather than just letting their creativity flow. Aside from Eze, who occasionally just goes for it and glides past players (though Arteta might have coached that out of him soon enough), who else is actually playing with a bit of freedom and enjoying themselves on the pitch?
Even the types of teams giving us trouble differ. City struggle against sides that are happy to go blow-for-blow and have the individual brilliance to actually hurt them—the likes of Brighton, Villa, Man United, or Newcastle to some extent. Essentially, they find it tougher against teams from the top half of the table if we sort it by the number of created chances.
Arsenal, on the other hand, find it a real struggle against teams that can set up a rock-solid defensive block and limit us to a handful of half-chances—think Bournemouth, West Ham (in the Moyes era), Fulham, or Everton. Then there’s Newcastle and Villa, who fall into both camps as they can defend deep and counter with pace. But in general we’re talking about the teams that are top-half material when it comes to the chances conceded. Everton are the textbook example of that kind of opponent.
Take a good look at our recent trips to Goodison Park. It’s a bit of an embarrassing table for a side that’s supposedly been in the title conversation for the last four seasons. We’ve managed to win on their turf exactly once in our best league run for two decades, and even then, it was by a solitary, scrappy goal (how are you doing, Leo?).
There’s a lot of talk about Arsenal relying on “the system” while other strong teams lean on individual brilliance to get results. That’s fair enough, but wasn’t it a specific individual (alongside KDB) who dragged City to their last two titles? And wasn’t another individual a massive reason Liverpool claimed the 24/25 crown?
Maybe just having a system isn’t quite enough? Maybe you really need that one player who’ll consistently find the net, allowing the system to just tick over when they’re having an off day? Or perhaps, if you’re going to rely on a system, it needs to be truly comprehensive. Surely this comprehensive system shouldn’t be ignoring an entire side of the pitch?!? Or that lethal zone around the box from where teams are know to create dangerous chances?
Do you feel that our system is designed to put our best players in the shooting positions? I feel that Arteta is more worried about Saka tracking back his full back rather then concentrating on getting Bukayo into a great shooting position as many times per game as possible. And that might be a key margin Arteta is overlooking for now.
Tough old Everton
I’ve heard plenty of chatter about Arteta being hard done by, but you can’t really call it “unlucky” anymore. Truth be told, we were blessed to come away with that winning own goal against Wolves. We’ve also caught a massive break with Everton’s most influential defensive and attacking midfielders heading off to the Africa Cup of Nations. Without Gueye and Ndiaye, their engine room is going to be seriously depleted, lacking any real cohesion. There’s simply no excuse—we have to go out there and dominate them.
This is a proper “must-win” game. There’s nowhere left to hide, the safety margin has completely evaporated, and there are zero excuses for another poor showing, because this is going to be our reality for at least the next couple of months.
The back four pretty much picks itself, especially with Myles likely to be tucked away on the bench. Against this makeshift Everton midfield, I don’t want to see us sitting in a double pivot; I want to see a brave 4-1-4-1. Get Declan in at the 6 to mop up and snuff out any Everton counter-attacks before they start. Ahead of him, I want to see a “fantastic four” of Trossard, Eze, Odegaard, and Saka. That’s a midfield with the quality to hog the ball, carve out openings with tidy passing, and test the keeper from different ranges. Any defense would have a nightmare trying to handle those four.
As for the number 9, I’m actually leaning towards Gyokeres. There’s a fair bit of talk that we need more from our striker than just “occupying defenders” and dragging people out of position, but for this specific opponent and set up, that’s exactly what we need. With their midfield reshuffled, Everton’s main strength is the Tarkowski-Keane partnership, backed up by some real shift-workers at fullback. There’s nobody better than Gyokeres to get stuck in and keep those centre-halves occupied for 90 minutes or whatever the shift he gets.
It’s mad when you realize we could actually field an entirely different front six—Zubimendi, Merino, Martinelli, Nwaneri, Madueke, and Jesus—and that “second choice” would still be better than anything Everton can put out on Sunday. That’s the real strength of this squad; we shouldn’t be nitpicking a depleted defense for every little slip-up. Arteta needs to take a good look at his squad and realize he has the luxury of bringing on a completely fresh, high-quality attack to turn the screw in the final half-hour. We should be finishing games strong, not worrying about being perfect at the back.
This squad has more than enough about it to simply outscore the opposition rather than obsessing over having the lowest xG conceded. Liverpool outscored everyone on their way to the title, and City did exactly the same. It’s high time we went to the new Everton ground and started writing some new history of our own on that stadium!