Before Fulham. Is HE back?

The last international break of the season is over, the title chase is also over, but all the Arsenal fans are mostly concerned with one question...

Is Bukayo Saka back?

Will we see him on the bench against Fulham? Can he play for 20 minutes? Are there chances he can contribute to our Champions League games, especially the one in Madrid?

I don’t believe in illusions that he will be able to decide these games, especially after missing a large chunk of this season. We should be grateful if he can score a single goal. However, his return is a massive mental and energetic boost. Everybody knows that with the Trossard/Merino/Martinelli front line we won’t be anywhere near the level needed to go past Real. And the team knows it as well.

But with Saka in the squad? That’s when belief starts to flow in the blood of supporters and, most importantly, the players. That’s when our defensive line can believe that if they keep the clean sheet, there’s a chance we can also deliver results on the other end of the pitch. That’s when the home supporters at the Emirates will charge our team with an enormous energy supply.

Basically Saka announced himself on Instagram and all we need is to see the familiar face on the bench to kickstart the belief.

We are still playing in Premier League

If this game would be a part of our title race, I would be very much concerned for the result. Fulham has a history of disappointing us. They were the only one of two teams who took points from us in both games last season. They are among the three most uncomfortable teams for Arteta together with Aston Villa and Newcastle. 

Moreover, Marco Silva has pretty much learned how to deal with this Arsenal: they set up quite an effective deep block with a 5-4-1 defensive structure. They have a set of quick players that can run into counterattacks, spearheaded by Raul Jimenez, the author of a great goal in the away fixture this year. It’s a set up Arteta doesn’t know how to deal with well.

However, now the game comes in completely different circumstances. We are not really in the pressure of a title race and can play a more relaxed and less structured football (if Arteta allows it?). Fulham, on the other hand, are coming after a FA cup quarterfinal where 80% of their first team started only to lose 0-3 to Crystal Palace. Which means they are definitely not going to be fresh. In addition, they fight for European places and each point is now golden for them.

That’s why I am not really worried about it. The only danger is that I think most of our players are thinking about Real Madrid and it would be a very hard task for a coaching staff to get their minds back to Fulham. The home crowd, however, should do the better job in motivating the players. It’s the Everton game that concerns me much more in this regard. I don’t think that any result there should matter to us, but it’s a topic of the next post.

What about the personnel?

I am pretty sure that In this game Arteta would try the set up that he will then replicate against Madrid. I think it’s our predicted best eleven, which all picks itself except for the front three. I would expect that our first choice front three for Real Madrid would be Martinelli - Merino - Saka. And since Saka can’t definitely start on his first game after injury, I would really really hope to see Nwaneri on the right side. 

Ethan and Bukayo in the current state are the perfect duo to constantly share minutes. Saka needs to slowly get back into the game and have a limited load. Nwaneri needs to get more and more Premier League experience against different teams and set ups. The games against mid to deep blocks with plenty of physical duels are especially valuable, since he struggled there earlier in the season. So 70 minutes of Nwaneri + 20 of Saka sounds like a perfect option.

I would be very disappointed if we see dull Trossard on the left again tomorrow, especially that he’s not our long term future, unlike Ethan. I also wonder whether in such games where we expect to dominate the ball for majority of the game, Jorginho is a better option at #6. It seems that he makes the decision a bit faster and better controls the flow of the ball, despite obviously lacking physical presence.

The new Sporting Director

I can’t finish the post without touching on a very significant change in the club. Our new sporting director Andrea Berta officially starts at our club. I was very excited when the rumors about him were leaked into the press, but since then my optimism has taken a downturn. This is the quote from the most recent piece from Athletic:

Berta, whose appointment was confirmed on Sunday, has become accustomed to collaborating with a highly demanding manager of huge authority .... While Arteta has not yet reached Simeone’s level of success, his influence at Arsenal is comparable. Berta’s role will have wide-ranging responsibilities, but a key part of the job will be shaping the squad to Arteta’s specifications

This is bad news from my perspective. Practically speaking, it means that Berta is hired to get Arteta’s top identified targets. And I don’t think it is a right move for the club development. 

In general, any enterprise is going forward only if it is constantly learning from the previous mistakes. If the mistakes last year were that we couldn't get our primary targets, then such a signing would make sense. However, it is not the case. 

We had two major problems this year:

1. We were thin in specific areas entering the season and we didn’t address these areas in summer. We were thin upfront and got a single loan signing in the last minutes of the window, while Arteta’s staff was pushing to sign a 25 million second choice goalkeeper from Espanyol. Arteta also pushed for Merino and Calafiori, who didn’t make us stronger this year. Imagine if we spent Merino money on an actual striker who could help us after Havertz’ injury.

2. Arteta didn’t manage the player's fitness properly, he apparently overtrained the main squad. He didn’t trust the bench enough and didn’t do enough rotation to preserve the main players. Only a large pile of injuries forced him to try Zinchenko and MLS in midfield, who, by the way, didn't look bad there. Also, six muscular injuries is not "bad luck". Only Odegaard who missed the summer tournament could be attributed to bad luck. The rest were clear results of being overloaded in the very tight winter (and yearly) schedule while having no rotation options. 

I don't understand how a sporting director getting Arteta’s targets would fix that. And if he doesn't, the club definitely stopped moving forward. We need to have an adult in this club who would come and tell Arteta that he should manage player fitness better. That we can’t afford playing all season without at least one of our critical players. 

Arteta also doesn’t have a good record of identifying the correct players for our team. If we take the signings from last two summer windows we get the following picture:

1. Rice. Bought to play at #6. Mostly is used as a left eight. And given the strong rumours about Zuimendi, it’s a long term plan to continue using him there.

2. Havertz. Bought to play at #8 together with Rice. Ended up playing as our striker. Given Merino was bought afterwards, it’s a long term plan to continue using him there.

3. Timber. Fitted in great and improved our defensive line significantly.

4. Calafiori. Bought in the overcrowded position already. Not our main LB and not our main LCB. Was injured half of the season.

5. Merino. Bought to play as a left eight. Didn’t really click there. Fills in at striker role, since we have no other options.

Out of five players that Arteta really was excited about, only one player improved our squad in the position he was supposed to play in. Adding to this the second goalkeeper from Espanyol for 25mln+ that Arteta’s staff was pushing for, it’s not a trustable track record. The Athletic also mentioned that Arteta has a level of influence, similar to one Simeone has at Atleti. This is quite concerning, given that Simeone won 2 La Liga and reached a CL final, while Arteta didn’t win any major trophy.

I was really hoping that our new Sporting Director would be able to counter some of the issues Arteta and his staff has, but my hope is very slim now. I guess we’ll wait and see how the summer goes. And now the focus shifts on Fulham!

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