Before Leicester. And then it’s over!

Two more hamstring injuries after the empty transfer window tells a story.

“And then it’s over” is a famous quote from one of my favourite comedy characters - Ross from Friends. Basically he describes a sequence of unlikely events that should happen to end his romantic relationship. Which he obviously doesn't want to, hence, the comically described unlikely sequence.

Currently I feel that Arsenal went through this unlikely sequence of events, which is already past being fun. I was already furious after the news about Martinelli being out for 4-6 weeks. But to have a SEASON-ENDING injury of an ONLY STRIKER in the RECOVERY CAMP is beyond any stretch of imagination! What is the physio team doing if they can’t spot a player's muscles being close to being torn up? What is Arteta doing if the physio team can spot this? It's gross incompetence from the whole coaching staff. And it’s not the first occasion this season! Saka has been out for the exact same problem - hamstring injury in a regular episode that requires surgery and months of recovery.

Arsenal is in the bottom 4 by the number of minutes that subs play.

Arteta has been vocal about his views on player fitness: 

"Look at the top players in the world, they play 70 matches and every three days and make the difference and win the game."

This quote now looks very unserious when all kinds of players drop in top clubs like flies - Rodri, Jackson, Akanji etc. get severe injuries and miss big stretches of the season. The only club that didn’t have long-term injuries is Liverpool. You can say it’s luck, but it would be very naive. Since Slot doesn't rotate heavily, I’d say it’s likely proper fitness management. Easy training session in a packed schedule.

When we were left with Havertz as the only striker after the failed January window he dropped another quote.

“Genetically, he is a powerhouse. He is so well-built. He is a player that anything you ask him, he is happy to do: to run in zone six, to be very robust, to make long distances. His body absorbs everything. And then he really looks after himself.”

Now how not serious Arteta looks after these two quotes.

Not bad luck, but a clear pattern

Since mid December we’ve lost 5 players with muscular injuries - Saka, Nwaneri, Saliba, Martinelli and Havertz. This is a clear pattern of players being mismanaged. Anyone who blames this only on bad luck is somewhere between not serious and stupid. Everyone has seen Havertz fall down on the pitch after the Wolves game. Everyone has seen Martinelli run up and down the Emirates pitch for 90 minutes against City to get into the starting line-up three days later. Lack of rotation plus intensive training sessions (that most of the Arsenal players confirmed in the interviews) is completely on Arteta as the head of the staff.

Transfer window failure

Apart from that, the January window was failed by the club. When we lost Saka and Jesus and had Havertz sick and Nwaneri injured, it was obvious that only incompetent approach would bring us to the end of January without a new addition to the squad. One of the common opinions is that the club gambled in summer on the squad. Well, if the club gambled and obviously failed, having injuries of Odegaard, Saka and Jesus in the first four months, then they shouldn’t be gambling anymore in the January window. But the whole club has failed. And I don’t want to hear that Arteta did everything in his hands. David Ornstein on the podcast said that "Arteta didn't want to just bring the body". So it is a collective decision to not gamble on one of the forwards that were available.

I can understand that the club didn’t want to sanction the purchase of Watkins for 60 million. However, I believe that if Arteta demanded a loan of Morata or Kolo Muani or Asensio or even a Premier League player with the subsequent purchase/release of Neto, the board would approve it. It’s not a negligence to spend 10 million to close a gap for half a year. All talks about the need to pay a premium in January are now not making sense, if we don’t go in the CL quarterfinal or move down to third spot in the league.

Moreover, smart management means not only employing long-term strategy, but also combining it with short term needs when the circumstances demand it. Not refusing to bring in “just a body” when you are one injury away from the crisis. The majority of Arsenal fans online were asking for a body for this reason. If we can't get a level raiser, then at least somebody who can just provide depth and take minutes of our main players. And all because of this developed scenario, which was so easy to foresee. How would we benefit from “just a body” right now!

How’s Liverpool doing? It doesn’t really matter

All the excitement about Liverpool potentially losing points against Everton was fading away. And even though Everton almost broke their stadium in the last Merseyside derby in the 97th minute, we need to look at ourselves. In order to fight for the Premier League, we need to be collecting three points on a very regular basis. I’d say we can’t drop more than 2 before the Anfield game.

Our depleted striker choice is here until the end of March, when potentially Martinelli and Saka can start strengthening the squad again. The next two games are manageable, but then we have Forest away, ManUtd away and two 1/16 Champions League games. Going through this without expecting a point loss is right away naive.

We have Nwaneri, Trossard and Sterling left. Nwaneri, however talented, is not yet physically able to play 90 minutes week in and week out. His intensity starts dropping around the 70th minute, so he should be constantly rotated with someone. Sterling had literally not helped at all in this season. Maybe now that he will get more gaming time, he will start producing output. But it is a big big question. And I wouldn’t bet on him and Trossard also being able to play 90 minutes every three days efficiently.

Now I am really concerned about our round of 16. It would be a blessing if we can get one of the Dutch teams in that round and both of the teams preserve the chance of qualifying. Against PSV or Feyenoord we can just win with the moment of pure player quality, through well-executed set pieces, for example. But how will we score against Juventus? These guys are masters of closing up the spaces.

Ironically, our current team is not at best in the defensive mode. It’s not peak Mourinho, peak Atleti or Inter that feel comfortable sitting deep and having just 2 counterattacking chances in the game. We win games comfortably when we don’t let the opponent step out of their half, when we constantly press and push them and create chance after chance.

So what to do now?

In current circumstances the first thing to do is to look at a free agent market. I can see only one notable name there - 24-year old Ben Yedder. He was playing as a striker for Monaco until last summer. He scored 20 goals, including 16 in Ligue 1 for quite a good team, so he’s not washed up by any means. It would be arrogant to think such a player can’t help us and paying a million for his services until summer wouldn’t be even noticeable in the club budget.

The general question is: did Arteta actually learn a lesson from these injuries and will his approach change? He’s very stubborn and usually he starts to change only when he gets hit hard a couple of times - with a loss of points or loss of players. Nwaneri started to get regular gaming time only when all other options were out, even though it was visible since October that he is an outrageous talent. Timber at LB experiment ended after two draws in December. Partey at RB is continuing still, despite the horrible stats. Overplaying brought Martinelli and Havertz into the doctor’s office.

Unfortunately, hitting hard in the Champions League means getting kicked out of the competition. So how would we know if he has actually changed? Nwaneri should be rotated with someone every game. #9 position doesn’t have a clear answer, so will also require two options, and on the left side we can’t just expect either Trossard or Sterling putting in 90-minute shifts. Therefore, we should see that we have 6 options in active use for the striker positions. Some might play only 15 minutes, but they should be brought in or otherwise even existing three will get broken. 

For the right wing we have Nwaneri who can be rotated with Sterling, which sounds like a workable option. For the #9 we should definitely start trying someone new. When I heard about Kai’s injury, my first reaction was that we should start seeing Merino there. He can score a great header, he scored a winner in Euro quarterfinal against Germany and his physical attributes match more the work that should be done in the opponent’s box rather than in the middle of the pitch. He can occupy central defenders and leave spices for our wingers to run in. MLS can be a rotation option at left 8 and Calafiori or Zinchenko play at LB. 

Obviously, we should have an alternative option, if Merino doesn't work out. It could be one of our younger strikers, like Charles or Nathan or anyone else. However, the chances are they might not be ready.  It could be Raheem again or an actual striker who was still scoring for Monaco last spring.

The left wing is where apart from Trossard we should lean on our myriad of left backs. They are all left legged and have various skills that can help in front. Arteta’s demand for the winger is being able to keep the ball, take on opponents, press actively, track back the opponent’s wing back and obviously help with scoring. 

For keeping the ball and creating chances - Zinchenko is the best option. For pace, pressing, tracking back and actually helping with scoring I would lean on Calafiori or Tierney. So one of the options could be to lean on Zinchenko if we need to score goals in the last 15 minutes or on Tierney/Calafiori if we need to keep the score.

The next two games would be a Litmus test. If Arteta plays trio of Trossard/Sterling/Nwaneri for the 90 minutes and we don’t see two of MLS/Calafiori/Zinchenko/Tierney simultaneously on the pitch, then he hasn't learned sh*t. If we do see more active rotations and new options across the pitch, then there’s hope..

See you all after Leicester!