Before Liverpool. Time for pragmatism
The game at Anfield (that could have been an epic battle) comes on the back of three straight defeats for Arsenal.
Controversial quotes - has Mikel lost the plot?
This elimination week was heated up in the media by the couple of strong quotes that Arteta has made. After getting knocked out by PSG, he declared:
I am very proud of the players, 100% I don't think there's been a better team [than Arsenal] in the competition from what I have seen, but we are out.
which was later followed by the revelations that PSG told him that Arsenal was the better team. I don’t think that it’s fair to talk about xG and created chances in the PSG game and conclude about us being a better team.
PSG came out fired up in the first leg, scored a goal after 4 minutes and remained ahead by total score in the tie until the very last minute. They didn't need to press us, they didn’t need to create plenty of chances. They could just rely on the counter attacks, which they successfully did. They also had a couple of quite decent chances in the second leg - Kvara’s shot into the post, for example.
This assessment could make sense if we battered them most of the game with an even score and then they scored a late winner. But we have never put them into a position where they need to change their approach, where they actually need to create chances. I didn’t feel for a single minute of the tie that we were close to passing them.
I know that some might say that Arteta was sending a message to the players. There’s, however, a fine line between encouraging your players and being delusional. He could have said something like “we’ve put up a great fight and showed that we can compete with the very best on the continent” and it would not be treated as a joke. In the end players are exposed not only to the presser, but also to the narrative that builds up after it and it’s not ideal for morale, if they hear that their manager is giving a bit childish "bad loser” comments.
The other questionable quote came from pre-PSG presser:
Winning trophies as well is about being in the right moment, in the right place. Liverpool have won the title with less points than we have in the last two seasons. With the points of the last two seasons, we would have two Premier League titles.
The problem with this quote is that the main reason that Liverpool has won the title already - is because we didn’t give them a proper fight, because we have lost tons of points throughout the campaign. So basically the claim is that we would have won the title, if our competitors would be as bad as Arsenal this season. I also think it’s a bit inappropriate to talk about the Liverpool title and points needed, when a few years back Liverpool lost two titles having 97 and 92 points, while Arsenal under Arteta had at most 89 (below is the table with highest PL point tally without a title)
Arteta’s press-conferences throughout the year were pretty decent - he didn’t complain about injuries, he radiated confidence, he delivered strong messages. But the recent quotes demonstrate that Arteta is under some kind of pressure himself. I don’t know if that’s related to Berta’s arrival and questions he asks (we have no evidence of that) or if it is his personal frustration about the underappreciation of his work.
What I expect to happen at Anfield
After the heavy defeats Arteta’s usual response is to bring out the strongest eleven to bend the narrative, to get back on the winning tracks. This translates to a very strong starting eleven consisting of the ones who started either in Paris or against Bournemouth. More or less the same players that will play the fourth uneasy game in two weeks.
All the signs point that the Anfield clash would not likely end in a win for us:
Our away form since January’s transfer window has been a bit iffy – three draws and two wins against teams heading for the Championship.
Our league form overall hasn’t been much better – three wins, five draws, and two losses in the last ten.
Players are gutted after the elimination from the Champions League.
Arsenal will have the fourth game in two weeks for the same core group, while Liverpool will only have second, so they will be much fresher.
So, sticking with the strongest eleven is likely to end in more frustration. We would be gassed out by the end of the game, Arteta will throw in the subs after the 80th minute, who wouldn’t really have enough time and enough belief they can actually change something.
What I would like to happen at Anfield
We have to look at the rest of the season pragmatically - we have three games left:
Liverpool away
Newcastle home
Southampton away
With us being at least 3 points above everyone else chasing those sweet Premier League spots, we can actually sacrifice one game. It should definitely not be the game against the Saints, so it is either Newcastle or Liverpool.
My strong preference would be to go strong against Newcastle - we play at home, we have a score to settle against them, players should be angry and motivated after losing 0-5 on aggregate in three games this season. And what’s also important - we are in a situation where they need points more than us. They can’t just park their dirty bus and wait for a lucky break on the counter. We can make it properly uncomfortable for them at the Emirates.
But against Liverpool it’s a situation where we can’t really come out victorious. If we lose with the main squad - the losing narrative and frustration will really start to build up, if we win - it would probably be put down to Liverpool already having the title sewn up and being on the beach. I know that fans want revenge for their hurt feelings, but the risk seems much higher than the reward.
What I suggest is, first, to do a heavy rotation - start White, Trossard, Nwaneri, Zinchenko, Calafiori/Tierney. They’ve all got enough about them to give Liverpool a game.
And second, let’s try something a bit different tactically from the off, for example:
Saka pulling the strings at number 10, with Nwaneri tearing up the right wing.
Saka and Nwaneri as roaming attackers, swapping positions to keep their centre-halves guessing.
Play Myles in midfield - either at 6 or 8.
Play Calafiori at left 8. He doesn’t have enough pace to play as left back, he has too much bravery to play as centre back. I think his qualities and aura could shine at the more advanced left eight role. I might be fully wrong, but I’d still be interested to see it.
Even if the new tactics don’t quite come off, we can always revert to the usual setup later on to finish the game strongly. And let’s be honest, the likes of Saka, Martinelli, and Rice coming off the bench against tired legs for the last half-hour sounds a lot more appealing than them having to slog it out from minute one.
Trying something completely out of the box turns this tough fixture into a bit of a no-lose situation. If we get beat, well, we were experimenting with a rotated squad. If we somehow pull off a shock win, then Mikel’s a genius. And in both cases the strongest eleven would be better mentally prepared to punish Newcastle a week later.
So, will it be pragmatism or will it be fighting fire with a bigger fire?