Before Newcastle. Time to turn the tide?

The final test of the season against a motivated opponent.

Our last home game of the season happens to be against our most uncomfortable opponent this season. This season we lost all three games to them with a total score of 0-5. Overall we’ve lost 4 of our last 5 games against Newcastle. This should be a good ground to spark an aggressive and fired-up performance from our players.

I don’t really hate Newcastle as much as, for example, the Manchester clubs. They didn’t cause us a lot of pain throughout the years. My problem isn’t about their rough and tumble on the pitch, my problem is that PGMOL referees allow them to be this rough. I hate that Bruno can throw an elbow into someone’s face and get away with a yellow at best. If he would be playing like that for us, he’d be seeing more red than a postbox in December! Even Granit Xhaka might start biting his lip.

In the current situation, most probably a draw is enough for us to secure a second place. Since City have a very inferior goal difference, a point on Sunday followed by a win against Southampton next week should be sufficient. Newcastle are in a similar boat; a draw gets them Champions League, especially if they can then see off Everton (who could be already on their summer holidays) at St. James' Park. That results should definitely be easier than running for a victory at the Emirates.

These circumstances significantly raise the chance of the game ending either 0-0 or 1-1. In the end, we need to show something for this year - it could well be the record number of draws in the 38-match season! Just one to go!

That said, what I don’t want to see is us trying to beat them at all costs and fall into the same old Eddie Howe trap. It’s quite clear that Newcastle will sit in a 5-4-1 formation, they have already successfully practiced it against Chelsea last Sunday. With Murphy and Livramento hidden deep on the wings, and Gordon, Barnes, and Isak ready to pounce, they would jump into a counter faster than the spring from the 50-year old couch.

We need to make sure we don’t overcommit players in attack. We need to make sure we have proper cover in all positions, that we are ready to block their predicted counter attacking paths. For me it’s better if the game ends with a draw and Newcastle almost not having chances, rather than them catching us on the counter again. I would go even further - since they would expect us going through the wings, I would try and drive it through the middle as much as possible, get our players into shooting positions on the edge of the box and try to curve one or two in. Of course, I will not omit mentioning Ethan as one of our best three options for such a goal.

After the open training session it’s no longer a secret that Havertz has returned to train with the squad. In addition, Rice and Trossard didn’t show signs of long term problems. Personally, I would refrain from throwing Havertz into such a physical game. From a global perspective our season's pretty much done and dusted and it’s not worth risking any first team player for the Newcastle rumble.

This season we had two very different examples of player involvement after the injury - Odegaard was thrown in for 90 minutes in the very first game, while Saka was carefully integrated into the team with the expectation of featuring in a very important Real Madrid game. I strongly believe Havertz integration should follow the Saka path and start with at most 30 minutes.

I also would not risk it by throwing Declan Rice in. This is the opponent we can beat with careful ball control and the more technicians we have in the squad, the harder it would be for Newcastle to handle it. Partey alongside someone like MLS or even Zinchenko in midfield could give us that control.  At the same time, a recovered Declan would be much more useful against Southampton, where we don’t have any other way except pressing them and securing a victory.

Not fully sold on Zubimendi

I don’t like to comment on the potential transfer news - the names are being thrown into the media by agents without necessarily the club involvement, so it’s more often than not is just a waste of time discussing the players. I know that fans like discussing them, because it gives them some reasons for hope, fantasies and excitement. This week’s topic is Real Madrid’s Rodrygo. My short opinion on him - if we choose between him or Nico Williams, it’s definitely the Madrid man for me. One has several Champions League titles under his belt, the other has one strong international tournament. Rodrygo has actually scored tie-deciding goals against Man City, so it’s not even a debate.

But what doesn’t seem like a potential transfer - is Martin Zubimendi. My honest opinion is that I am not fully sold on him. I know he’s a player that every club in the Milky Way Galaxy and beyond wanted to bring him in, but I still have reservations about him playing well in Premier League reality. 

The general narrative is that he orchestrates the ball movement and can singlehandedly beat the press. However, Zubimendi is neither physically imposing nor a very fast player which severely limits his options against Premier League teams. His anthropometric qualities won’t allow to shield the ball from the opponents. His lack of speed won’t allow him to just turn them and run past in a free space. 

Look at his counterparts that our rivals have – Rodri, Gravenberch. Both bigger, probably quicker. There are not too many cases where central midfielders without those two qualities were successful in the Premier League. I can think of two recent ones - Santi Cazorla and David Silva. Now, they are both Spanish, which is an encouraging fact. But what’s more important is that they both were successful, because they were ridiculously good on the ball, they were just dribbling wizards and moved the ball so fast that the opponents couldn't get near them without a foul. Does Zubimendi have such dribbling abilities? Not fully convinced. Feels a bit like we'd be getting a younger Jorginho. Good player, sure, but does he really take us to the next level? 

And another thing – unlike Jorginho, he's not known for his long-range passing. My strong conviction is that going into the next season, long balls should be part of our regular offering. This year we struggled the most against decent mid-table teams (Fulham, Newcastle, Bournemouth) who have a good coach that can set up a proper deep block against us, but they also have quality attacking options that can bite us on the counters. If we want to have more options to beat such teams and not get sucked into their agenda, we need to play fast vertical balls from time to time, before we allow them to return back into their defensive shape. And who better to pick those passes out than our deep-lying midfielder?

The defensive stats some authoritative blogs bring up about Zubimendi are impressive (defensive duels, interceptions, even aerial duels!). But let’s not forget we are talking about a mid-table La Liga, who had one top European season recently, so these stats won’t necessarily be translated to the Premier League. We’ve brought Merino from there and he clearly lacks pace and to play in our midfield. We’ve brought Odegaard from there and his first season was hardly impressive. Only from the second on he got a grasp of how to be effective in this league. I would also argue that he also lacks pace for the Premier League, but he compensates for it to some extent with the sharpness of his feet movements. Now we are bringing the third guy from this same team.

The reality of this signing is that in case of Rice skipping the game for whatever reason, our midfield trio for next season would become Zubimendi/Merino/Odegaard. I am not really comfortable with that for now. Are you?