Before PSG. Defying the odds
Today we’ll know the name of the first semifinalist. And tomorrow Arsenal will try to become the second.
It was quite interesting to observe how differently the first legs of two semifinals went, despite all teams creating between 1.1 and 1.5 xG (closer to scoring one goal than to any other number in a normal game). But Champions League semifinals are not normal games, it’s where the unexpected happens, where a moment of pure brilliance can defy all the odds.
The Barcelona - Inter duel ended in a mesmerizing 3-3 shootout and could have seen even bigger numbers on the score sheet. Inter clearly did their homework, they saw Barca's high line and their defense full of youngsters that are not convincing in physical duels. Italians exploited it pretty well and demonstrated the way we could also give troubles to Barcelona.
Barcelona scored three because they have unreal individual attacking talent, combined with an elegant fast combination style of the whole team. And they have Lamine Yamal. Yamal, who probably has the same unbendable attitude as Myles Lewis-Skelly, but plays on the other end of the pitch. Barca managed to carve out chances and score goals from the situations where the opponent was in an organized shape, had strong individuals and experience of stamping clean sheets. But against such a striking set of talents it was never going to be enough. They did exactly what Real Madrid failed to do to us.
Watching these two teams, I had a nagging feeling that both of them have spark, passion and audacity that the current Arsenal team doesn’t possess. Some individuals, like injured Gabriel, Myles, maybe Rice and Saka could have these moments of unstoppability, but it’s not enough. Our team looks too conservative and schooled, but not passionate and fearless. Like we’ve been told off for having too much fun. That said, in the finals more often than not pragmatic teams win, although we still need to get there.
As for their result tonight? Your guess is as good as mine - I could easily see it going either way by a couple of goals... Our semifinal is much more predictable though. PSG are going to come at us like a swarm of angry wasps right from the whistle. Pressing high, trying to dominate possession, looking to kill the tie off in the first 25 minutes. Just like they did at the Emirates, and against Villa. If we want to stand a chance, we need to weather that storm.
One of the easiest ways to fight the pressure is to provide your own dangerous countergame. If every time your team intercepts the ball, they are able to launch a counter attack that either ends with a shot, corner or a free kick, then it would take the wind right out of the opponent’s sails. Our current setup doesn’t exactly scream "counter-attack kings," does it? I can’t even remember when we were under pressure and playing successful counter attacking football this year. Maybe last 20 minutes against Man City at home. But that’s an exception rather than the rule.
When we don’t have the ball we set up 4-4-2 with Odegaard and CF being front two, which is going to be Merino. Mikel Merino, despite all the charm, doesn't have the pace to run in the counter attacks. And we have already seen how Odegaard struggles when the tempo goes through the roof. It’s also quite clear that only injury will make stubborn Arteta take him out of the starting squad. Now, imagine for a moment Saka is starting at #10 and he is part of the front two out of possession. So if we intercept the ball and deliver it to him, he has only one opponent to beat before being able to run with full throttle into the box. Fancy our chances a bit more then, wouldn't you?
Unfortunately, Saka and Martinelli (who sometimes awakens in big games) are usually tracking back deep, doing their defensive duties. And if we intercept the ball, Saka has not only the left back to beat, their left centre back has all the freedom to provide the cover, because Odegaard is dropping deep and not running forward to keep the centre back occupied. The only option of counter attack we have - if Bukayo suddenly channels his inner Messi, which given his form and recent injury is not very likely.
Which means we have to rely on our defenders, Partey and Rice being flawless - intercepting the balls without fouls, not giving away penalties or free kicks in dangerous zones. Basically, turning into robots. Is it possible? Yes. What’s the chance of it? Not very high. However, if we manage to scrap through these 25 minutes unscathed, then our chances will start to increase.
I don’t think we have a chance of winning in extra time, due to our manager's fetish to overplay the starting eleven. Enrique has rotated heavily on the week-end, Arteta didn’t. Enrique will have 5 decent players to step in, Arteta will drag his feet with subs until someone’s practically on a stretcher.
With no real possibility of scoring four, that leaves us with two desired options: either 2-0 or 3-1 wins. That’s a mountain to climb against PSG’s defence and Big Donnarumma in goal. They only gave us a couple of decent chances at home; away, it’ll be even tougher. We will desperately need someone to pull a goal out of nowhere just like Declan did against Madrid.
We need someone to defy the odds.