Before Villa. Crazy or.... bold?
Preview before the most important game of the winter.
I hadn’t planned on another ramble before the Villa game, but this one is massive—some might even say “title-decider” massive—and I’m already buzzing with enough nervous energy to power North London, well at least this post.
Oddly enough, I’m not actually too concerned about the result today. If there’s one thing Arteta has drilled into our squad lately, it’s that the Emirates is a fortress for the big occasions. I’m actually more confident about stuffing Villa than I am about the Bournemouth game that follows. Just look at the track record from the last few seasons.
23/24 Season:
A 1-0 masterclass against City where they barely had a sniff.
That massive 3-1 win over Liverpool when they were five points clear and losing the game meant we were done.
The 2-2 with Bayern. Even after a horror 10 minutes with conceded goals before the break, Arteta worked his magic with the subs, we battered them in the second half and ended up with a draw.
Now, some of you will bring up that painful loss to Villa, but let’s be real: that wasn’t meant to be the clincher. It was early April, with Chelsea, Old Trafford, and a trip to the Toilet Bowl still on the cards. No Gooner in their right mind expected us to rattle off eight wins on the bounce (the only problem was that City actually did that), so the Villa game didn’t feel like the end of the world at the time.
24/25 Season:
A 2-2 draw with Liverpool where we were clearly the better side until Salah did what Salah does once Timber went off.
Hammering City 5-1.
A 3-0 demolition of Real Madrid that sounded like a fever dream before kick-off.
The only real outlier is that home defeat to PSG in the semis, but they were arguably the best team on the planet then.
25/26 Season:
A comfortable home 301 win against Bayern.
You have to go back to 22/23 to find a decisive home loss (to City again), but we were a weaker outfit and they were probably the best team on the planet at the time.
I don’t know if it’s Arteta’s “passionate/scary” pre-match talks or the Emirates crowd finding its voice feeling the importance of the occasion, but the team walks out for these games knowing that losing is simply not on the menu.
So, I’m fairly certain we won’t lose today. But a draw vs a win is a world of difference for us. A draw would likely see us knocked off the top of the table by the first day of 2026, and you just know that’s exactly how the script would go, City is never missing that occasion.
The issue is the weight of expectation on Arsenal specifically. If we don’t bring it home, the “bottler” narrative will be inescapable, especially as the pundit narrative became “it’s ours to lose” since October. The only other lot under much social media heat is Liverpool, purely because of the silly money they spent in the summer.
City, though? They get a free pass. If they miss out, it’s just another “transition year”, despite spending a small nation’s GDP in 2025. Their players look like they’re actually enjoying the game. The only thing keeping their engine running is Pep’s pure, unadulterated rage at the idea of his former assistant beating him to the trophy. That’s why if City jump us now, our games are going to become even more stressful, gritty and very hard on the liver.
The personnel
I’m 95% certain of the XI Arteta is going to roll out today. It’s a proper crunch match, and he usually leans on his favorites in these moments. I’m fairly sure Timber isn’t fit to start—if he were, he’d have been chilling on the bench on Saturday. That means we’re stuck with Rice again, which actually isn’t quite a good option against Villa. Gabriel will partner Saliba, and on the left, I’d bet my house we see Hincapie. Myles has fallen out of favour this season, and to be fair, he’s been at times a liability.
The midfield should be a carbon copy of the Brighton game: Merino, Zubi, Ode, Saka, and Trossard. The only real headache is the number 9. We all know that as a well-behaved boy who grew up in 90s Spain, Arteta has a lot of love in his heart for Jesus and will be dying to give him the nod.
I’d go a different way with the selection, however. We’ve had a nightmare with converting chances lately, so we need the coolest, most clinical finishers to actually get us all three points. Based on that profile description, my front four today would be: Saka, Eze, Trossard, and Merino. I’m convinced that when it comes to the big moments, neither Jesus (with his tendency to overthink and that signature “Resting sad face”) nor Gyokeres (with his confidence currently in the bin) will finish their dinner. Merino is the only one I’d trust to actually hit the back of the net.
This leaves a bit of a hole in the middle, and I’d be tempted to take a punt on Norgaard. He was decent enough against Palace. Zubimendi’s passing range mixed with a bit of Norgaard’s physicality feels like a solid combo. I know what you’re thinking—as your mum used to say: “Danish is all well and good, but it’s no substitute for Rice!”. To address that, I’ve got a bit of a wild, somewhat crazy proposal for you.
How about we start Rice in midfield where he belongs and stick Martinelli at right-back? Don’t close the tab just yet—hear me out. We know Gabi can track back like a maniac; he’s perfectly happy charging up and down the touchline all day. When we were parked in our own box at the Etihad, he was basically our leftmost defender and didn’t look out of place at all.
Villa don’t really do traditional, scary wingers like Doku or Pedro Neto. Their most likely right winger is Morgan Rogers, who spends his whole life drifting inside anyway. If you look at the average positions from the game three weeks ago...
...Rogers is even more central than Ollie Watkins, and Maatsen is the only one actually providing any width. Zubimendi and Rice can handle Rogers, while Martinelli can spend his time overlapping Saka. The usual response to handle a threat coming from Saka is to send an extra man his way. Now imagine trying to deal with two powerful dribblers coming at you on the same side. Absolute carnage.
It’s not crazy in my opinion—it’s bold! Pundits used to slaughter Guardiola for overthinking his Champions League line-ups before City finally cracked it. But this isn’t “tinkering” for the sake of it—everyone else in the team stays in their natural habitat. And if it’s a total disaster in the first 30 minutes, we just shift Rice to right-back, put Merino in the middle, and push Martinelli back up top. Easy.
A move like this puts us on the front foot and gives Emery a tactical headache to solve on the fly. One solid half while Villa are still scratching their heads could put us two up and out of sight. It’s the kind of move that fires up the dressing room—showing them the boss has a special plan for a special game and can fuel their belief. I miss seeing those unconventional moves at Arsenal. If Slot can chuck Szoboszlai at right-back at Anfield against us and watch him win Man of the Match, why can’t we?
Arteta was given a massive squad for this exact reason—to have different options, be unpredictable and creative with a starting line-up. But there’s no point having all these options if even my nan knows the starting XI 24 hours before the kick-off. Every manager in the league can prepare for us in their sleep, and it’s doing us no favors.
Fortune favours the bold. Although, in our last three title charges, it’s mostly just favoured the bald. It’s high time we corrected that annoying spelling error!
Hmmm not sure this is how it’ll play. Expect Timber (mood music says he’s fit) or Norgaard). Alternatively Calafiori is back which allows others options.