Man City - on the bus. Fortune favours the bold

Arsenal clings onto a late point with a stand-out equaliser.

Unpredictable lineup, you say?

Having signed eight new players, all of whom could be starters for Arsenal, our squad has ventured into territory where we're now told the line-up will be unpredictable for every upcoming match, thanks to a robust selection of 20 quality players. Yes, sure.

I'd wager it didn't take Guardiola a half scratch of his head to guess our starting XI for this game, especially that glorious Zubimendi-Rice-Merino (ZRM) midfield that was so 'successfully' deployed against Athletic and at Anfield.

I went on at length in the previous post about why this midfield simply doesn't function from an attacking perspective. This post didn't exactly set the world alight with likes, probably due to its somewhat negative tone, but it was abundantly clear after today's first half that it wasn't far-fetched in the slightest. Besides the reasons already mentioned, I'd also add that such a midfield further restricts the manager’s in-game flexibility.

If a balanced line-up starts, it can be tweaked both ways depending on the match situation, and that ZRM trio could actually be useful for shutting up shop once you've got a two-goal lead. It also made Guardiola's tactical setup rather straightforward. He merely flooded the midfield and deployed a double cover on Madueke, forcing our team into the one trap he could have possibly laid – intercepting the ball and delivering it to Haaland near our box as quickly as humanly possible. And it didn't take them more than ten minutes to execute that precise plan. Zubimendi lost the duel, Gabriel was slow in tracking back, and Saliba allowed Haaland a clear shot instead of leaving Reijnders in a state of indecision where he might well have stalled or taken a shot himself.

This is what I penned in the preview to the game.

This iteration of Manchester City doesn't have a selection of game-changers. If our team can get a hold of Haaland, something our centre backs have a habit of doing, their team suddenly loses its aura of invincibility. Yes, Guardiola and his tactical coaches will dissect our new-look squad down to the most minute detail. …

But I'll put money on it: if Arteta starts Merino, Rice, and Zubimendi in midfield once more, Manchester City will open the score. Then it'll just be a question of whether we can claw back a win when Arteta finally makes his "creativity substitutions"

As predicted, the first half concluded with a one-goal deficit after we unsuccessfully bombarded their box with set pieces. Despite having more possession and buzzing around their area, genuine threats were scarce – a mere one shot on target with less than 0.4 xG overall. It was abundantly clear that the team needed a shake-up; City had successfully established a defensive camp, and Merino wasn't going to magically unlock it.

Pass map in the first half - 3 central midfielders in line with wing backs. Source: Optaanalyst

A Wasted First Half

Unfortunately the team wasted the entire forty-five minutes before the manager realised this approach simply wasn't going to work. Arteta finally unleashed Eze and Saka after the break, replacing Merino and Madueke. Personally, I'd have preferred to see Trossard withdrawn and Madueke shifted to the left flank, as Noni would surely have found more freedom against a stretched defence now having to account for Saka as well. However, Arteta's thinking seemed to be maintaining the centre-drifting left winger tactical setup created specifically for Eze, which was ably complemented by an overlapping Calafiori. And Trossard is certainly much more suited to that role. While I'm not entirely convinced it would have required extensive adaptation from the team to revert to last year's patterns – where Calafiori roamed through the middle and Martinelli hugged the touchline – the improvement was nevertheless obvious.

The team began to completely dominate possession, relentlessly trying to poke a hole in City's defence. Within a modest five minutes, we had already seen two highly dangerous shots from Eze and Zubimendi from the edge of the box.

But why did Arteta wait the entire half to make these changes? Wasn't it glaringly obvious after just twenty minutes that ZRM was never going to work out?

Guardiola, in turn, threw on more defensive muscle, mirroring his padawan's strategy of playing a 5-4-1, at times having seven defenders crammed into the box. Arteta, meanwhile, unleashed all the firepower at his disposal – Eze, Saka, Martinelli, Trossard, and Nwaneri were all on the pitch, leaving us with only two nominal defenders (three, if you count the Italian stallion, though you can't simply tie him to a defensive role). Again, if you're prepared to throw on five creators when you're 0-1 down, why not deploy three when it's still 0-0?

Then, deep into stoppage time, Eze delivered a brilliant diagonal ball behind the defenders (a truly uncommon sight from a number 10!), and Martinelli complemented his perfectly timed run with an unbelievable finish. He had minimal time to react, and the trajectory was incredibly difficult to execute, but that Brazilian killer instinct kicked in and the stadium erupted. It's the second time in a week Gabi has saved Arteta from fierce post-match criticism.

Source: arsenal.com

The celebration, to my taste, perhaps went on a bit too long, particularly as City seemed to offer absolutely nothing in the second half. They merely kicked the ball away a couple of times, and we still had four minutes left to snatch a victory. The final whistle blew at 1-1, which, regrettably, puts Liverpool already five points clear after just matchweek 5.

Bravery will be rewarded, cowardice won’t

This game has merely confirmed the suspicions many fans harboured about Arteta. The starting line-up was clearly chosen out of fear. Such a setup might have had some logic behind it when deployed at Anfield, but it became concerning when selected against a much less dangerous Athletic. Today, at home, it turned alarming.

Arteta was clearly terrified of the worst City team we've seen in years—a City team that was confidently beaten at the Etihad by Tottenham. The whole "unpredictability" flex isn't much use if you trot out practically the same line-up in two consecutive games.

Fans can moan all they want about Liverpool’s luck, but three weeks ago, facing a major rival at home, Arne Slot have chosen Szoboslai, a nominally attacking midfielder, to cover at right-back. Meanwhile, Arteta showcased his collection of attacking midfielders on the bench, opting for one with great off-the-ball work and an ability to win duels. So maybe, just maybe, Slot at Liverpool is forging his own luck? Perhaps his decisions truly inspire his players and power them with the belief that they can win every game, no matter how late it is on the clock?

Arteta’s "support group" amongst the fanbase is already hard at work, spinning the positive narrative and finding excuses for the result.

City had the lowest possession rate under Guardiola? We snatched a point against a rival? Well, that's because it was one of the least threatening City teams Guardiola has ever fielded. He had Khusanov and O’Riley at wing-backs, when it used to be Walker and Gvardiol. This City side has only truly beaten relegation-bound Wolves, a dead Manchester United at home, and a ten-man Napoli. They haven’t faced many real tests this season, so a home draw is absolutely nothing to write home about.

Arsenal had an injured squad? To be fair, we were only missing Ødegaard and Havertz, and the club brought in quality options like Eze and Gyökeres for those positions—players who arguably bring new, strong qualities to the team that weren't there before their arrival.

We showed we could come back late in the game? Frankly, Martinelli’s strike was so exceptionally difficult that it could easily have flown wide. Even established Premier League scorers like Salah or Haaland might have sent that ball off target. A wonder goal rescued us a draw, just as a Liverpool wonder goal clinched them a victory. So now we can safely say we've taken only one point from two games against our rivals, no ifs, buts, or maybes about it.

Liverpool are already five points clear, and we're phasing Newcastle next week. From what I’ve witnessed so far, organised deep blocks are still a viable tactic against Arsenal, and there’s no one better than Eddie Howe and his crew to execute it to perfection. Newcastle have conceded in only one game this season—that crazy clash against Liverpool—so all signs point to another tough struggle for us. At least they don’t have Isak, right?

Arteta didn’t dare to go for a win at Anfield, even with Liverpool looking clueless for the entire first half. Arteta didn’t dare to go for a win today from minute one, despite Arsenal being clear favourites, despite us hammering City 5-1 back in January at this very stadium.

The great hope (and the main selling point from Arteta’s cheerleaders) was that he would learn from last season’s mistakes, the club would address the pain points in the summer, and we would finally make that decisive step forward. Well, I’m afraid I have to disappoint you: Arteta hasn’t learned that his approach is the problem. He hasn’t connected the dots between the number of draws last season and his cautious tactics. The only thing that’s changed is that Arteta now has far more quality players, allowing him to bring on stronger reinforcements from the bench. This will undoubtedly help convert more draws into wins and losses into draws, just as it happened twice this week, but it’s not a sustainable solution. It’s more like buying stronger sticky tape to patch up a punctured tyre instead of getting a new one.

Arteta is very stubborn and predictable. He persists with what he believes in, or what has worked before, until it clearly causes problems. He doesn’t change things proactively; he’s not trying to surprise; he’s not one step ahead of the opposition, and he’s simply not going to be a top manager with that attitude. If he didn’t change after losing the league to a manager in his first year, when on earth will he?

You simply won’t win the big games if you’re constantly dreading what your opponent might do. You won’t win the league if you don’t dare to smash your rivals at home, if you don’t show them you’re there to take all three points. You won’t be the best, stand-out team in the competition by always "playing safe".

In fact, the best you can hope for by "playing safe" is to come second, which has already happened three times under Mikel. Most likely, Arteta has already hit his ceiling, and he’s probably the last piece holding this team back from taking that final step. And please, spare me the argument that he’s the best available manager for Arsenal. Very few people knew about Arne Slot before he was appointed, and now he’s a Premier League winner and leads the current table.

The next match is the League Cup against Port Vale—a game where all our players who aren't necessarily great at off-the-ball work but excel at creation will get a chance to shine: Nwaneri, Dowman, Lewis-Skelly, Hincapié. It won't do much for their long-term development, nor will it truly credit them with more first-team minutes, but at least it’ll give them an opportunity to showcase their talents. And then, it’s off to St James’ Park!