On the bus after Brighton. The acceptance phase

The 1-1 draw against Brighton went by quite a predictable scenario:

1. We score the goal while the opponent tries to find scoring opportunities.

2. We defend the narrow lead.

3. We concede a goal.

4. We try to go back to attack without belief, needed players and any tactical changes and fail to score.

This is not the first time some or all of these events happen in the game, so it didn’t really come as a surprise. And while the draw away against Brighton in such circumstances (our squad depleted with mass sickness) is not a bad result - draws against Everton, Fulham and loss against Newcastle hurt more, this game underlined all the existing problems we have in the team. Let’s go over them now.

Arteta doesn't manage the squad well

Our squad while being quite short is not rotated well.

• Several players (like Kiwior or Zinchenko) appear only when the main player is injured. They are not motivated and not in the shape to step in if needed.

• The main players, like Saka, Odegaard, Rice, Timber are getting overplayed and get into the risk of being injured

• There’s a big suspicion that Arteta’s training sessions are very intense, which in addition to the schedule of playing every three games causes constant injuries in the squad, including Saka.

Actually the only players that looked sharp today are the ones who didn’t play too many games recently - Rice and Nwaneri.

There is a lack of explosive attackers

While there will always be a number of teams setting up a defensive block against us, it’s crucial that we have creative players that can produce explosive moments to unlock the opponent’s defense. 

During our last season’s run, we had two such players - Saka and Odegaard. And two is probably enough for a good team. However, now we are in a position where we are going to play 5 months without at least one of them. In addition to that, Odegaard looks pretty unimpressive for the last month. 

The only other such player in the squad is Ethan Nwaneri. He made a difference second time in his two starts in the Premier League after Rice’s brilliant move to free up the space. But now he’s also injured for some time.

So, Odegaard is out of form. Gabriel Jesus shined for a week, but yesterday he was back to the regular levels. It looked like he made zero successful dribbles against Brighton. Martinelli didn’t create any threat. 

Unless we sign this window for an explosive attacker that is ready to slide right into the team, we are going to continue losing points. And January is not really the time for such transfers. Usually, one can only find some depth options that may also not work out, so I don’t have high expectations on that. The only player I can think of: is Osihmen, who’s currently on loan to Galatasaray, but could be brought in on a permanent transfer and will cost us a lot.

One goal is not enough

Scoring one goal per game is not enough to compete for the titles. This is a league of strong players and it's been clear that the team should be ready to score at least 2 to rely on winning games.

There’s been a lot of outrage about the referee’s penalty decision. But it’s not really important. If our plan to win the game can be broken by an equalizer in the 60th minute (not in 93rd), then we are in deep trouble.

It's not only referees - Raul, Rashford or Pedro Neto can score a brilliant goal from distance. There could be a corner (Fulham last year), a deflection, a ball loss from Jorginho in front of the box (Spurs last year) that makes us concede the goal in the game we otherwise control. 

Stats is confirming it, by the way:

If we rely on 1-0 wins, then we will not win the Premier League, it’s as simple as that.

Arteta doesn’t change the plan mid-game 

What we also lack is changes in the middle of the game that change our approach. Arteta mostly sticks to the initial plan and does like-for-like changes with more defensive and attacking players incoming.

There are several occasions of such issues:

1. Yesterday after losing our best attacking player and having a highly physical squad, we could have switched to long vertical passes that fired Martinelli and Jesus behind their defensive line. Pretty sure Brighton wouldn't be well prepared. But we played the same system knowing that we have no players that can really open up their defence in positional play.

2. Partey at RB (and Timber at LB) concentrates players in the middle and makes it easy for the opponent to close up our wingers. But Arteta continued to play Partey there, even after he completely bossed the midfield against Brentford. Same as he played that setup for 90 minutes against Fulham and we were clearly struggling. It’s been over a month since White had surgery and we didn’t try any other option - Saliba (with Kiwior in the middle), Calafiori, MLS.

3. We were struggling with Everton, but we didn’t pull out any risky moves. For example, deploying Gabriel and Merino for the last 15 minutes into their box for crosses.

4. We also don’t start doing long shots from outside the box when we can’t open a deep block. We have several players with good shots, but every time they do shoot, it looks like desperation rather than a planned action.

5. Pedro Neto was electric against Arsenal, but Arteta and players didn’t recognize that and didn’t put extra cover on him. Finally he equalized the score.

To sum up, we have won a single game where the opponents have equalized in the second half and it was Leicester at home. 

The title chances

It's time that we be honest with ourselves and accept that we are not winning the Premier League title this year. We don't have electric creative players (with Saka and Nwaneri injured) and Odegaard alone if he finds form is not going to carry us to the title. It doesn’t matter that Liverpool drew today with Man United (they could have lost or drawn). With their team it’s clearly seen where goals will come from - they scored 2 today. Their loss of points came from draws 2-2, 2-2, 3-3 and 2-2. So when they will be up against a less motivated opponent, they will not concede two. Apart from scoring their chances United took Salah's counter attacking play seriously and tried to close him down as fast as possible.

Our better chance is actually the Champions League. And even there it's well known that the manager and players need to first feel the immense pressure of CL final (and semifinals) before winning it. We don't have to go back for examples: Klopp's Liverpool and Pep's City first lost their finals before winning them.

The only shot we have at CL - if we get the same newbie as us in the final, which is highly unlikely.

So the only real chance we have are at League Cup and FA cup (that smells of those hopeless years). And these titles don't suit the levels of our best players - Saka and Saliba. And if Bukayo is homegrown and it might keep him for another year, Saliba would be seduced by Real Madrid already in the summer and I am not sure there's a good exit from this situation, except selling him for a shitload of money.

Newcastle

Next up is the Carabao Cup semifinal with Newcastle. Magpies are in great shape. They have beaten 5 opponents in the row, including Villa, ManU and Spurs. They are a very nasty team and hard to crack open. Honestly, this is the worst opponent out of three possible. I would much rather play against Spurs or Liverpool, who attack themselves, but as well leave zones for opponents to exploit.

To be fair the best we can hope for is a 1-0 win in a very tough physical game. But I think it would be a 0-0 or 1-1 draw. Could be even a loss if we are caught badly on the counter. It would be very hard to open their defence at home and in their stadium they will be pushing us hard.

The only positivity we have is TImber returning into the squad and hopefully pushing Partey back into midfield where he belongs. However, our wings are completely dysfunctional, so I would only hope for some scrappy goal from a set piece.

The only thing left is to hope. COYG!